Price trend

On the 1st, the nickel price rose significantly. According to the nickel price monitoring of SunSirs, the average price of nickel in the spot market was 194,716.67 RMB/ton, up 4.56% from the previous trading day and up 33.6% year on year; Nickel futures note rose 3.94% on the day. Nickel futures rose 3.94% on the day.

Analysis review

Typhoon landed in the Philippines, and nickel ore transportation was blocked

Typhoon "Nig" had landed in the Philippines and is gradually close to the coast of South China. Affected by the typhoon, the transportation of nickel ore was blocked. The price of nickel ore was still strong and the cost support as strong. In addition, with the arrival of the rainy season in the Philippines, shipments began to decrease, mine bidding prices soared, and supply side disturbances drove up mine prices.

LME may restrict the Russian nickel transaction

It is rumored that the London Metal Exchange (LME) in September issued a discussion on metal processing in Russia, which ended on October 28. Most market participants expect that the decision to restrict Russian nickel trading will be announced soon. The possibility of supply interruption of Russian Nickel as the main deliverable in LME nickel market has sharply increased the market sentiment.

The typhoon rainy season superimposed Russian nickel trade or limited rumors, and the new energy industry has a strong momentum of development. The demand for nickel for power batteries is growing, the price of battery grade nickel sulfate is rising, and the explicit inventory of pure nickel remains destocking, leading to a sharp rise in nickel prices. However, the seasonal demand of "Golden September and Silver October" faded, the demand growth slowed down, and the nickel fundamentals were weak. In addition, Russian nickel may enter China in large quantities and nickel beans may join Shanghai Futures Exchange for delivery in the later period, which limits the space for nickel price to rise.

Downstream stainless steel price fell back

In the first half of October, the price of stainless steel kept rising, which drove large steel mills to step up procurement. However, since the last ten days, the price of stainless steel has fallen back. In the context of the slowing recovery of terminal consumption, the downward transmission of demand was limited. At present, the downstream are mostly wait-and-see.

Market outlook

According to the annual nickel price comparison chart of SunSirs in recent three years, the price in November will still be stronger than that in October. The supply side is tight, but the demand in "golden September and silver October" has subsided. In the case of weak supply and demand, the nickel price is easily affected by macro factors, and the price fluctuates greatly. It is expected that the nickel price will continue to fluctuate widely in the short term, and there is no condition for unilateral rise.

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