Price trend

In October, domestic polyester staple fiber prices showed a trend of high opening and low going. According to the price monitoring of SunSirs, the average price of domestic polyester staple fiber spot market on October 31 was 7,792 RMB/ton, 1.70% lower than the price of 7,926 at the beginning of the month, and 4.28% lower than the same period last year.

In the futures market, the main contract of polyester staple fiber at the end of the month closed at 6,738 (settlement price 6,750), down 5.79% from the beginning of the month. This month, the main force of PTA futures of domestic polyester staple upstream raw materials fell 6.94% to close at 5,012, and the main force of ethylene glycol futures fell 12.55% to close at 3,769.

Analysis review

Industrial chain:

1. Although OPEC+cut production more than expected this month, the certainty of the Federal Reserve's interest rate increase expectation was strong, which restrained the upward momentum of crude oil prices. As of the end of the month, the settlement price of the main contract of US WTI crude oil futures was 86.53 US dollars/barrel, and up 8.17% for the whole month.

2. In this month, with the restart of the large factory, PTA's load and supply increased significantly. The terminal demand was weak, they would purchase the raw materials when the need it and there was a strong expectation of load reduction. In addition, the Spring Festival this year is earlier than previous years, and the overall lack of confidence in the future market. PTA price went down.

3. In this month, some domestic ethylene glycol plants were restarted, and the supply rebounded at a low level, but the overall operating rate remained relatively low, and the port inventory accumulated slightly. The terminal order was weak, the weaving operation rate was not high, the downstream operation rate dropped from a high level, and the accumulated storage pressure at the polyester end increased. Overall, strong supply and weak demand led to lower prices.

4. The yarn market continued to be flat this month, the downstream demand was poor, and the finished products continued to accumulate. Yarn mills mainly carried out goods with small orders and short orders, and the prices were mostly stable. The quotations of some varieties were slightly reduced.

Supply and demand side:

Some polyester staple fiber units were restarted this month, and the operating rate rebounded. Jinzhai Xinlun restarted, Jiangyin Huahong, Yizheng Chemical Fiber, Sanfangxiang load increased, and Xinfengming Zhonglei partially reduced production. The demand for polyester staple fiber is suppressed by the deepening of downstream losses, high inventory and limited orders. The spot price of polyester staple fiber fell all month, and the trend of spot price was stronger than that of futures.

Market outlook

Analysts from SunSirs believe that the market is still evaluating the impact of future crude oil demand prospects and tight supply and other factors on oil prices. It is expected that the crude oil market will remain volatile, and the cost side of polyester staple fiber may remain volatile. The supply of polyester staple fiber has been stronger and demand has been weaker recently. It is expected that the polyester staple fiber will show a weak shock trend in November, but it may rebound if it falls too far. Pay attention to cost side price change, device restart and downstream orders.

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