According to the monitoring data of SunSirs, near the end of October, the rigid demand for terminal feed supported, the soybean meal inventory continued to decline, the domestic soybean meal market supply was tight, and the market again ushered in an upward trend. On November 1, the main spot price of soybean meal rose to 5,526 RMB/ ton, up 4.3% from October 25.
At the end of October, the soybean meal market started to rise again, mainly due to two factors: first, the supply soybean meal inventory fell to a historical low; second, the demand for flour feed output continued to increase, supported by rigid demand.
Supply side: During the National Day holidays, the arrival of imported soybeans in Hong Kong declined, soybean oil plants were shut down for maintenance, the supply of soybean meal became tight, and the inventory continued to decline. By the end of October, the soybean meal inventory had fallen for more than 4 months, down to the first line of 220,000 tons, nearly four times lower than the peak of 1.07 million tons in July, creating a new record low. The supply side inventory remained low. Soybean oil plants kept raising the soybean meal delivery price, and the market kept rising to 5,500 RMB/ ton.
Demand side: Since the third quarter, the domestic feed output has been increasing. According to the data of China Feed Industry Association, the national industrial feed output in September 2022 will be 28.33 million tons, an increase of 7.5% month on month and 3.1% year on year. The fourth quarter is the traditional peak season for breeding. The profits of pig raising have rebounded, the enthusiasm of feed factories for stocking has increased, and the amount of soybean meal purchased has increased.
SunSirs agricultural product analyst believes that: the fourth quarter is the traditional peak consumption season of feed, supported by rigid demand, and the soybean meal inventory continues to be low. As the soybean meal market is at a historical high, there may be a short-term correction in the future market, and there is still room for growth after the correction.
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