Price trend

According to the monitoring data of SunSirs, the average market price of soda ash was about 2,650 RMB/ton on November 2, 2022, and the price remained relatively stable from September 2022. However, compared with the price of 3,687.5 RMB/ton at the same period in 2021, the price fell by 28.14%.

It can be seen from the annual comparison chart of soda ash that the price of soda ash in 2021 was at a high level in the fourth quarter, of which the highest price was about 3,687.5 RMB/ton on November 6, 2021, which ran at a high level.

Analysis review

It can be seen from the monthly K column chart of soda ash that there were many years for soda ash to rise in 2021, of which the rise rate reached 34.05% in September, and the largest rise rate of soda ash in 2022 was 20% in February. Since March, the price of soda ash has been adjusted in a narrow range, and it was difficult for the price to rise or fall significantly.

In terms of supply, the supply of soda ash is loose. Some data show that the inventory of 1.8 million tons at the beginning of 2022. Although the total inventory of soda ash enterprises is 317,000 tons, which has been kept low from the second half of the year, the soda ash industry will have about 1.2 million tons of new capacity from the end of this year to the first quarter of next year. Under the pattern of loose supply and demand, the price focus of soda ash will gradually move down.

From the perspective of demand, the terminal impact of the real estate is still relatively low, and there is no warming phenomenon. The demand of downstream float glass is general. It can be seen from the above figure that the price of glass went down all the way in 2022. The average market price at the beginning of the year was 24.87 yuan/ square meter, and the average market price at the beginning of November was 19.73 yuan/ square meter, down 20.67%. The price of glass remained low and did not improve significantly.

Market outlook

According to the analysts of SunSirs, the overall operating rate of soda ash in the supply side is now at a high level of about 90%, and the supply is relatively stable. The operation of downstream float glass manufacturers has not improved significantly in terms of demand. The domestic real estate market is weak, and the price of float glass has fallen for several consecutive months. Most of them are purchased on demand, with a strong wait-and-see mentality. It is estimated that the price of soda ash will still be consolidated slightly, depending on the downstream market demand.

If you have any questions, please feel free to contact SunSirs with support@sunsirs.com.