Price trend

According to the monitoring data of SunSirs, as of November 3, the reference price of n-butanol in Shandong Province was 7,533 RMB/ton, which was 533 RMB/ton higher than that on October 30 before the festival (the reference average price of n-butanol was 7,000 RMB/ton), or 7.62% higher.

Analysis review

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of SunSirs that this week (10.31-11.03), the domestic n-butanol market in Shandong Province saw a rebound in the rising market, with an increase of more than 5% this week. The main factors supporting the rising market of n-butanol are from the following two aspects:

First, on the supply side, recently, due to the impact of special periods, the logistics and transportation in some areas of Shandong Province are limited, and the delivery to some n-butanol manufacturers is limited. In addition, due to the early shutdown and the restart of the maintenance plant, the spot supply inventory in the n-butanol plant is not high, and the overall supply pressure is low. The supply side gave support to the n-butanol market.

Demand side

In the end, domestic demand entered the traditional slack season, and the downstream urea market was cold. According to the monitoring of SunSirs, urea fell 1.92% in October, and the supply and demand fundamentals of urea were unbalanced. On the one hand, in terms of agricultural demand, a small amount of goods were prepared, the operating rate of compound fertilizer plants declined, the demand for urea weakened, and it was difficult to support the high price operation. On the other hand, industrial demand increased slightly. The rubber sheet factory enterprises started at a low level, mainly rigid demand procurement, and the melamine price was consolidated at a high level, so they had a good enthusiasm for urea procurement. In general, the downstream was still rigid, with less increment and limited support.

Second, on the demand side, at the end of October (October 30), the market price of n-butanol had fallen to a lower level, and the buying atmosphere in the downstream market had warmed up. In this week, the supply side of n-butanol had decreased. Under the condition that the downstream construction was stable, the on-site trading atmosphere had improved, the purchasing mentality was good, the goods were actively prepared, and the demand was ushering in a phased increase. The demand side also gave high support to n-butanol.

As of November 3, the market price of n-butanol in Shandong Province in China is around 7,500-7,700 RMB/ton, and the price increase this week was around 300-600 RMB/ton. Among them, the ex factory quotation of n-butanol of Luxi Chemical is 7,700 RMB/ton; The ex factory price of n-butanol of Shandong Lihuayi Chemical is 7,700 RMB/ton.

In terms of upstream propylene, in November, the domestic propylene market as a whole continued the downward trend at the end of October. According to the data monitoring of SunSirs, the reference price of propylene on November 2 was 7,004.60 RMB/ton, a decrease of 0.45% compared with that of November 1 (7,036.60 RMB/ton).

Market outlook

At present, the trading atmosphere of n-butanol in the market is good, the sales pressure of n-butanol is not big, and the mentality of the industry is strong. In terms of cost, the downward trend of propylene price is difficult to provide effective support for n-butanol. According to the n-butanol data engineer of SunSirs, in the short term, the domestic n-butanol market in Shandong Province will mainly rise slightly, and the momentum for sustained growth is limited. More attention should be paid to the specific information changes on the supply and demand side.

If you have any questions, please feel free to contact SunSirs with support@sunsirs.com.