In recent half a year, the price of polybutadiene rubber continued to decline in a weak market. As of November 4, the factory price of BR of Sinopec North China Sales Company was 11,100 RMB/ ton. With the decrease of the outgoing price, the market of polybutadiene rubber accelerated to decline. According to the monitoring of SunSirs, as of November 4, the market price of polybutadiene rubber in East China was 11,330 RMB/ ton, down 6.05% from the end of October, and down 24.73% from the annual high of 14,980 RMB/ ton in June.
Supply and demand: since June, the commencement of BR has remained between 60% and 73%, which is higher than that of the same period last year. In addition, a total of 290,000 t/a units planned to be put into production in 2022 are planned to be put into production in the second half of the year, so there is continuous pressure on the supply side of BR; From January to September 2022, the total output of downstream tires declined compared with that of last year, and the purchase volume of BR declined. The merchants reported that the demand for BR has been sluggish especially since October.
Cost: According to SunSirs, the cost support of BR has weakened significantly since June. As of November 4, the price of raw butadiene was 7,146 RMB/ ton, down 6.02% from the end of October, and 40.92% from the annual high of 12,096 RMB/ ton in June. At present, the ex factory price of BR is close to the cost line. In the later period, if the price of raw materials stops falling, BR may limit production and ensure the price. The main raw material of BR is butadiene, plus various auxiliary materials such as additives. Based on the current market price of raw materials and auxiliary materials, the cost of raw materials and auxiliary materials needed to produce 1 ton of BR is around 7,700-8,500 RMB/ ton, and the average price is around 8,100 RMB/ ton; In addition to the labor and other costs of 2,500-3,000 RMB/ ton, it is estimated that the current cost of BR is around 10,600-11,100 RMB/ ton, which is very close to the current ex factory price of BR.
SunSirs BR analysts from SunSirs believe that at present, the domestic Hopu, Lande and other BR devices are stopped for maintenance, and the pressure on the supply side of BR Rubber will be slightly relieved in the short term; After the price of BR has dropped sharply recently, the downstream inquiries have increased, and the shipment of merchants has improved slightly; In addition, the current price is close to the cost line, and it is expected that China BR will stop falling and stabilize in the short term after accelerating the decline. In the future, we still need to pay attention to changes in cost and demand.
If you have any questions, please feel free to contact SunSirs with support@sunsirs.com.