According to the monitoring of SunSirs, the average price of the first grade white sugar was 5,720 RMB/ ton at the beginning of last week, and 5,726 RMB/ ton at the weekend. The price rose 0.10% and fell 0.63% compared with the same period last year.
In the 21/22 pressing season, 5.3372 million tons of sugar were imported, a year-on-year decrease of 997,800 tons. It is estimated that an additional forecast of 290,000 tons will arrive in October and 350,000 tons in November. The supply pressure brought by imports is still there. With the opening of Thailand in November, the amount of syrup available for export will increase again. It is difficult to ease the import pressure in the fourth quarter. 21/22 During the pressing season, the domestic sugar carry over industrial inventory was 890,000 tons, down 160,000 tons year on year, only second to the highest level in nearly seven years last year, and the inventory pressure was still high.
It is estimated that the sugar output of Guangxi in the 22/23 pressing season is 5.4-5.6 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 500,000 to 700,000 tons; The national sugar output is estimated to be 9.56 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 250,000-450,000 tons. In terms of production, it is estimated that the earliest start-up time of the sugar factory in the 22/23 pressing season in Guangxi is November 20, and the centralized opening time is late November. The overall opening progress will exceed 50% by the end of November, slightly ahead of the previous pressing season. The main reason is that the Spring Festival in 2023 is earlier than that in previous years, and some state-owned sugar enterprises have slightly advanced the time of pressing for the sake of annual business objectives.
The supply pressure in the sugar market is still. First, the pressure on imported sugar and syrup. Second, the pressure on carrying forward inventory is high. It is expected that the future market price of white granulated sugar will be dominated by shock and weak trend in China.
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