- Price Data
According to the latest monitoring data of SunSirs, the average factory price of domestic refined naphtha as of November 30 was 6,120.00 RMB/ton, 2.11% higher than 5,993.33 RMB/ton at the beginning of this month, and the price of refined naphtha rose in shock.
On November 29, the naphtha commodity index was 75.53, up 0.45 points from the previous day, down 26.40% from 102.62 (2012-09-24), the highest point in the cycle, and up 78.81% from 42.24, the lowest point on July 19, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2012-09-01 to now)
- Analysis of Influencing Factors
Product: the price of refined naphtha in November fluctuated and increased. At present, the mainstream price of hydrogenated naphtha is about 6,100 RMB/ton. The price gap for naphtha cracking in Asia rose to a six-week high as stable demand helps absorb supply and is expected to continue in the short term.
Industry chain: upstream: according to the monitoring of SunSirs, U.S. WTI crude oil at the beginning of November was $54.18/ barrel, at the end of the month was $55.17/ barrel, with a monthly increase or decrease of 1.83%; Brent crude oil at the beginning of the month was $60.23/ barrel, at the end of the month was $62.43/ barrel, with a monthly increase or decrease of 3.65%. In November, the international crude oil fluctuated upward. At the beginning of the month, the market was optimistic about the Sino US trade and it was reported that OPEC would consider extending the current production reduction agreement at the December meeting. However, the demand for U.S. crude oil did not improve in the month, which hindered the rise of crude oil. Downstream: some suppliers actively stock up. According to the monitoring of SunSirs, affected by the low inventory of the port, the domestic toluene market rose 0.71% overall this month. At present, the mainstream price in East China is about 5,650 RMB/ton; the xylene market rose 3.81%, and the mainstream price in East China is about 6,300-6,350 RMB/ton. Last month, the domestic spot supply of pure benzene was tight, which led to a slight recovery in the price of pure benzene. At present, the price of pure benzene is 5,250-5,351 RMB/ton. In terms of PX market, the trend of domestic p-xylene ex-factory price decreased slightly in November, and the current PX price was 6,700 RMB/ton.
Industry: according to the price monitoring of SunSirs, in November 2019, there were seven commodities in the list of commodity prices rising and falling, among which there was one commodity increased more than 5%, accounting for 6.3% of the monitored commodities in the energy sector; the top 3 commodities were MTBE (5.70%), Brent crude oil (3.65%) and gasoline (2.43%). There were eight commodities falling on a month on month basis, among which there were two commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 12.5% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top 3 products falling were petroleum coke (- 15.21%), dimethyl ether (- 7.43%), coking coal (- 3.74%). Last month's average rise and fall was - 0.99%.
- Market Forecast
According to the energy analyst of SunSirs, Sinopec and PX producers will focus on replenishment in December, and gasoline is expected to rise slightly in December, driving the naphtha market. The price of refined naphtha in December is expected to rise, with the average price range of 6,000-6,300 RMB/ton.
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