On December 4, WTI crude oil futures market price in the United States rose sharply to $58.43/ barrel, settlement price rose by $2.33, or 4.2%; Brent crude oil futures price rose sharply to $63.00/ barrel, settlement price rose by $2.18, or 3.6%. The main drivers were the sharp decline in EIA inventories and OPEC's release of expectations for further production cuts.

First, according to the inventory data released by the US energy information agency, the short-term supply in the crude oil market showed significant positive results. The US crude oil inventory decreased by 4.9 million barrels as of the week of November 29, as refineries increased production, which was much lower than expected, the EIA said on Wednesday. Analysts had expected inventories to fall by 1.7 million barrels. Prior to that, API crude oil inventory decreased by 3.72 million barrels, expected to decrease by 1.798 million barrels. The decline in crude oil inventory provides the driving force for the rise of oil prices. After the data was released, the short-term price of us oil rose rapidly, reaching a high by the end of the closing.

Last week's data showed that US EIA crude oil inventory increased by 157,200 barrels, and domestic crude oil production increased by 100,000 barrels, to 12.9 million barrels/ day, a record high. As a result, oil prices fell sharply on Friday last week. There is a certain undervalued space for oil prices. Therefore, the rebound space of oil prices is eye-catching, boosted by EIA inventory data yesterday.

Moreover, at present, the crude oil market is still focused on the OPEC meeting held in Vienna on December 5-6. Market participants will wait to see whether OPEC will increase its production reduction efforts. Although OPEC members have previously sent conflicting messages on increasing the production reduction efforts, the current news is clearer. Iraqi oil minister said on Tuesday, "some major member countries tend to increase the production reduction efforts," he said on Wednesday that he would support the extension of the end time of the current production reduction from March to the end of next year. This caliber is longer than the previous news that it was extended to June and lasted for another six months. This positive production reduction signal has given the crude oil market a strong shot and increased the strength of crude oil rebound.

In the later stage, SunSirs believes that there are still certain risks in the medium and long term of the crude oil market, and that the decline in the future market demand growth is still a haze that crude oil is hard to get rid of. Previously, OPEC lowered its forecast for the global medium and long-term oil demand growth. Earlier, the OECD, the world bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) have repeatedly lowered their world economic growth expectations and there are certain risks in the demand for crude oil. In addition, the supply side risk may hedge against some risks of slowing demand, mainly due to geopolitical factors of oil producing countries, as well as economic risk expectations. The current situation in Iraq, Iran, Nigeria, Libya, Angola, Algeria and Venezuela is still pending. In addition, the decline in the activity rate of US shale oil rigs will also be a supporting factor for the oil price. Considering comprehensively, the crude oil price will continue to fluctuate broadly in the near future, and the long-term trend will continue to be under pressure due to the weakness of global demand.

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