According to the monitoring data of SunSirs, after the National Day holiday, the soybean meal inventory was low, the arrival of imported soybeans in Hong Kong declined, and the market of soybean meal continued to fluctuate and rise. Due to the negative pressure of the external market, after the big rise, there is a downturn. After a short consolidation, the soybean meal market saw a rise again until November 7. The mainstream quotation rose to 5,586 RMB/ ton, and the price rose 8.95%.

Since October, the soybean meal market has resumed its upward trend, rising nearly 9% until the beginning of November. The main reason for the strong soybean meal market in this round is that the supply side of imported soybean has declined in Hong Kong, soybean oil plants have shut down, the soybean meal inventory remains low, and the soybean meal market remains high.

Supply side: During the National Day, the arrival of imported soybeans in Hong Kong declined, soybean oil plants were shut down for maintenance, the supply of soybean meal became tight, and the inventory continued to decline. By the end of October, the soybean meal inventory had fallen for more than 4 months, down to the first line of 220,000 tons, nearly four times lower than the peak of 1.07 million tons in July, creating a new record low. The supply side inventory remained low. Soybean oil plants kept raising the soybean meal delivery price, and the market kept rising to 5,500 yuan/high.

At the beginning of November, due to the insufficient supply of imported soybeans, domestic soybean oil plants staged another shutdown tide. Dozens of large oil plants in Northeast, North China, East China and other regions were under shutdown for maintenance until the middle of November. The supply of soybean meal was tight, and the inventory was as low as about 200,000 tons. Most feed plants at the terminal were also facing shutdown, supporting the high soybean meal market, which was close to 5,600 yuan/ton.

SunSirs agricultural product analyst believes that the soybean oil plant has a low start-up rate, the soybean meal supply continues to be tight, the rigid demand for terminal feed is supported, and multiple positive factors are superimposed, so China soybean meal market in the future is easy to rise but hard to fall.

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