According to the monitoring of SunSirs, as of November 10, the price of NBR was 15,250 RMB/ ton, a new low in the year, 37.88% lower than the peak in the year. Since the beginning of the year, the NBR market has experienced two rounds of downturns. The first round of downward trend fell from the end of April to the end of August, with a decline of 35.79%; The second round of downward trend fell by 10.43% from late September to November 10. The traditional peak season only brought a small rebound to NBR in the short term, and the continuous downturn in demand once again dragged down NBR.
Raw material prices fell sharply, and the cost support of NBR was seriously insufficient. According to the monitoring of SunSirs, the price of butadiene on November 10 was 6,603 RMB/ ton, 45.41% lower than the year high of 12,096 RMB/ ton; It was 28.83% lower than the September high of 9,277 RMB/ ton. Although the price of raw material acrylonitrile has rebounded since the end of August, it still fell sharply compared with the beginning of the year. According to the monitoring of SunSirs, as of November 10, the price of acrylonitrile was 11,190 RMB/ ton, down 23.15% from the high at the beginning of the year.
The supply side remained loose, dragging down the NBR market. On the one hand, the newly-built 35,000 t/a butyronitrile unit of Lanzhou Petrochemical will be put into operation in May 2022, and there will be pressure on the supply side of the new butyronitrile capacity; On the other hand, during the Jin Jiu Yin Shi period, the domestic NBR plants basically operated normally, the enterprise inventory accumulated, and the pressure on the supply side of NBR further increased. Lanzhou Petrochemical 100,000 t/a nitrile unit operates normally; The 30,000 t/a NBR plant of Nanjing Jinpu Insa Synthetic Rubber Co., Ltd. is in normal production; The 30,000t/a NBR plant of Arantai Rubber operates normally; Normal production of Zhenjiang Nandi 50,000 t/a NBR plant; Ningbo Shunze 65,000 t/a unit operates normally.
Recently, the downstream rubber products industry continued to operate at a low level, the purchase of NBR was sluggish, the market turnover was light, and the demand for NBR was insufficient.
Future forecast: NBR analysts from SunSirs believe that at present, Nandi's 50,000 t/a NBR plant has been shut down for maintenance for about two weeks, slightly easing the pressure on the supply side of some NBR brands. However, the supply side of NBR is still relatively loose as a whole. In addition to weak demand, it is expected that NBR will continue to bottom out in the short term in China.
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