Price trend

According to the data monitoring of SunSirs, the zinc price was 24,728 RMB/ton as of November 15, up 6.87% from 23,138 RMB/ton on November 1. After the zinc price rose for five consecutive days in November, the zinc price fell slightly on November 8, but only fell for two days, and then the zinc price rose again for three consecutive days.

Positive factors

Glencore maintained its Nordenham zinc smelter in Germany in November, and the scale of reduction and shutdown of European refineries will be expanded to 740,000 tons. The reduction and shutdown of European refineries are further expanded, and the supply of zinc in Europe is expected to decrease.

Due to environmental pollution in the waters of Sichuan, the Provincial Environmental Protection Department ordered some zinc smelters to stop production, resulting in limited output of relevant refineries. It is reported that the annual capacity of enterprises affected this time is 310,000 tons, and the supply of zinc in domestic cities is reduced.

Negative factors

LME currently does not prohibit the delivery of Russian metals, nor does it set a threshold for the Russian inventory. The supply of zinc ingots in the international market is stable, avoiding a serious shortage of zinc supply in the market.

The processing cost of domestic zinc concentrate continues to rise, the production enthusiasm of zinc smelters rises, and the domestic zinc ingot output is expected to increase.

The Indian Mining Federation sent a letter to the Ministry of Finance seeking to increase the import tax on zinc and other metals to stop the tide of imports, especially from China. India's supply of zinc import tax affects China's export of zinc ingots, and the demand for zinc ingots is expected to decline.

Market outlook

According to the data analysts of SunSirs, the supply of zinc in the market has decreased due to the suspension of maintenance in Europe and the suspension of environmental protection in Sichuan; However, LME does not restrict Russian metals, and the continuous rise of domestic zinc concentrate processing fees has stimulated the production enthusiasm of domestic zinc smelting enterprises and ensured the supply of zinc market; However, India has increased the import tax on zinc metal in advance, affecting the export of zinc ingots, and the demand for zinc is expected to decline. In general, the supply and demand of zinc market are weak. In the short term, the supply of zinc market is insufficient, stimulating the shock rise of zinc price. In the long term, the supply of zinc market is basically stable, the demand is expected to decline, and the downward pressure of zinc market is increased. Long term zinc price is expected to be adjusted in a wide range.

If you have any questions, please feel free to contact SunSirs with support@sunsirs.com.