According to the monitoring of SunSirs, the main spot market of natural rubber (Baodao full milk) in East China on November 18 was 12,040 RMB/ ton, up 0.08% from the previous trading day and down 10.42% year on year.
Industrial factor: SunSirs monitoring shows that since the price of natural latex fell to the annual lowest point of 11,170 RMB/ ton on October 31, the spot price of natural latex in November rebounded on the basis of the bottom range and driven by futures, rising by 4.42% in the first half of the year. In terms of spot goods, the supply side has a strong supply, the spot price of Thai rubber latex has dropped to a new low at the end of the year, the main domestic ports have imported rubber to the port, the inventory has continued to increase, and the spot circulation is abundant. From the demand side, the downstream tire enterprises have great pressure on tire supply, the finished products are stored in warehouses, and the domestic and foreign demand is sluggish. It is naturally difficult for the product enterprises to increase the purchase orders for raw rubber, and it will take time to improve the rubber procurement. Latex prices in Southeast Asian production areas, domestic markets and the US dollar rubber market are still hovering at a low range. Although rubber prices have rebounded, the turnover is relatively light. The market generally expects the supply impact of domestic adhesive tape to be cut off soon.
On November 17, international crude oil futures fell sharply. The settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was 81.64 dollars/barrel, down 3.95 dollars or 4.6%. WTI fell to the lowest point since October 3. According to the analysis, the signs of economic recession in Europe and the United States are becoming more and more clear, which may lead to a decline in global demand and become the shadow of the oil market for a long time. In the short term, OPEC still plays a leading role in regulating the slow growth of shale oil in the United States. In the later period, it does not rule out the possibility of continuing to reduce production, which will support oil prices. At the same time, the EU's oil ban on Russia is coming into effect, and the expectation of tight supply is still in the short term. In general, the short-term supply and demand game in the oil market is intensified, which will maintain a volatile pattern; Medium to long term or facing downward pressure.
According to the production law of natural rubber, the cutting of domestic full latex will be stopped successively next month. In the short term, it is difficult for natural rubber to rise substantially under the condition of loose spot supply and poor improvement of order demand; In the medium term, natural rubber is about to enter the annual low production area. The market expects that the cessation of cutting of domestic rubber is a very important positive factor for the market. According to the seasonal characteristics, upward price expectations are more common in the future market.
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