As of November 20, the average ex factory price of domestic local refining hydrogenated naphtha mainstream was 8,144.75 RMB/ ton, down 0.51% from 8,186.33 RMB/ ton on November 14. The actual transaction price of local refining hydrogenated naphtha was about 8,000-8,200 RMB/ ton.

As of November 20, the average ex factory price of domestic straight run naphtha mainstream was 7,759.00 RMB/ ton, down 1.02% from 7,838.67 RMB/ ton on November 14. The actual transaction price of local straight run naphtha was about 7,700-7,900 RMB/ ton.

On November 20, the naphtha commodity index was 100.52, unchanged from the previous day, 17.36% lower than the cycle's highest point of 121.64 (2022-03-10), and 137.97% higher than the lowest point of 42.24 on July 19, 2016. (Note: the cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2012 to now)

The price of refined naphtha fell last week, and the terminal ethylene and reforming were lack of obvious advantages. The purchase was based on demand, the refinery was active in shipping, and the merchants were mainly wait-and-see. The transaction was cautious.

Upstream: The international crude oil price fell in shock, and the Federal Reserve suggested that the interest rate increase was far from over, and it was not close to the end of monetary tightening. At present, the interest rate increase of the Federal Reserve has limited impact on inflation, which is not enough to reduce inflation. The Federal Reserve may need to take more tightening measures to curb inflation in the future, which will affect the decline of crude oil prices. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) once again lowered the growth expectation of global crude oil demand in 2022. With the risk of global economic recession intensifying, the future slowdown of demand growth is a certainty, and fuel demand will also face pressure. The slowing demand of China, the largest oil importer, also caused widespread concern among investors, and the oil market fell sharply. In addition, the overall economy is weak, and the prospect of energy demand is still not optimistic. The economic weakness depresses oil prices.

Downstream: According to the monitoring of SunSirs, the price of toluene rose first and then fell last week. On November 11, the price was 7,410 RMB/ ton, and on November 18, the price was 7,440 RMB/ ton, up 0.4%. The price of mixed xylene rose slightly last week. On November 11, the price was 8,040 RMB/ ton, and on November 18, the price was 8,100 RMB/ ton, 0.75% higher than that of last week. In terms of PX market, the price trend of last week was temporarily stable. As of the weekend, the domestic ex factory price of paraxylene was 8,600 RMB/ ton, which was unchanged from the price of 8,600 RMB/ ton at the beginning of the week.

SunSirs energy analysts of the business agency believe that the international crude oil price fell in shock last week, and the cost support of the naphtha market is limited; The terminal ethylene and reforming are lack of obvious advantages, and the procurement is mainly based on demand. The merchants have a strong wait-and-see mood and are cautious in the transaction. It is expected that the naphtha in China will fluctuate downward in the near future.

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