Recently, the price trend of refining steam and diesel oil has declined. As of November 23, the domestic price of 92# gasoline was 8,134.6 RMB/ ton, down 0.45% from November 10; The domestic price of 0# diesel oil was 8,786.8 RMB/ ton, down 3.0% from the price on November 10. On one hand, the demand was low, and on the other hand, the price of crude oil was low.
In terms of gasoline: the recent epidemic situation has spread in many places, the enthusiasm of the middle and lower reaches to enter the market has been greatly frustrated, the travel of residents has decreased, the demand for gasoline has been sluggish, and the market price has continued to decline. The operating rate of refineries remained at about 65%, and the supply side was normal. The local refineries were relatively abundant in resource supply. In addition, the gasoline inventory rose, the operators' intention to enter the market was reduced, the market atmosphere was light, and the gasoline price was weak and low.
In terms of diesel oil: with the decline of temperature, the operating rate of large-scale industrial and mining infrastructure and other industries has declined. At the same time, the northern autumn harvest has ended, and agricultural oil consumption has decreased. The domestic diesel supply was guaranteed and the export volume was controlled. The diesel export volume in October was 1.06 million tons, down 39% month on month. With the gradual recovery of domestic refinery output, the tension in resource supply eased slightly, and the trend of the diesel market declined.
In terms of crude oil: after the middle of November, the international crude oil price fell sharply. As of November 23, the settlement price of the main contract of the WTI crude oil futures in the United States was 77.94 dollars/barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was 85.41 dollars/barrel. The Federal Reserve hinted that the interest rate increase is far from over and is not close to the end of monetary tightening. At present, the interest rate increase of the Federal Reserve has limited impact on inflation, which is not enough to reduce inflation. The Federal Reserve may need to take more tightening measures to curb inflation in the future, which will affect the decline of crude oil prices. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) once again lowered the growth expectation of global crude oil demand in 2022. With the risk of global economic recession intensifying, the future slowdown of demand growth is a certainty, and fuel demand will also face pressure. The slowing demand of China, the largest oil importer, also caused widespread concern among investors, and the oil market fell sharply. In addition, the overall economy is weak, and the prospect of energy demand is still not optimistic. The economic weakness depresses oil prices. On the whole, the crude oil price has declined, and the domestic refined oil market has been affected.
SunSirs oil product analyst believes that the realization of international oil prices is weak, and the cost has negative impact. There is no positive factor to boost the gasoline industry, and travel in some regions is limited. The demand for gasoline is poor, and there is still a risk of price decline. At present, the downstream has increased their resistance to high priced resources, the operating rate of large industrial and mining infrastructure and other industries is expected to decline, the demand for diesel oil is low, the export volume is declining, and the price of diesel oil market in the later period is mainly reduced slightly.
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