1. Trend analysis
According to the data of SunSirs, today's domestic copper price changed from the previous narrow fluctuation trend, rising 1.56% to 48,133.33RMB/t per day, rising nearly 800RMB/t per day, down 0.06% from the beginning of the year, up 2.55% year on year. The main reason is that China US trade negotiations are close to reaching the first stage agreement. In November, the domestic copper import data was stable and multiple positive results triggered the copper market.
2. Spots and futures
According to the data of SunSirs, the main contract price is the price in the next two months, and the spot price is higher than the main contract price, indicating that people's expectations on copper price are not so good.
Macro oriented
U.S. non farm payrolls rose the most in 10 months in November, confirming that the economy is still expanding moderately, easing market concerns. The UK's housing price index rose to a 7-month high in November after the quarter adjustment of Halifax, reflecting a significant improvement in the UK's real estate market. At the end of the year, the economic meeting of the Political Bureau of China indicated that the policy was to support the economic growth and the Sino US trade negotiations were close to reaching the first stage agreement.
Low inventory
Copper stocks on the London Metal Exchange (LME) continued to decline, falling below the 200,000 ton mark to 193,800 tons, a new low since May 29, according to data released on Friday. As of December 6, copper inventory in the previous period continued to decline, down 6.26%, to 112,667 tons, a new low since the beginning of the year.
Scrap copper ran out of approvals in the fourth quarter
In terms of scrap copper, most domestic enterprises that need to import scrap copper say that the approval documents in the fourth quarter have been exhausted, and some enterprises actively purchase scrap copper ingots and other alternative raw materials in the market. On the supply side, it will still be tight in the future, and the global dominant inventory will decline.
Stable demand side
After entering the fourth quarter, China's automobile and home appliance sales have improved, and the operating rate of wire and cable enterprises has increased substantially year on year. With the end of the year infrastructure investment, copper market demand remains stable in the traditional off-season situation in the fourth quarter.
3. Future prospects
Based on the above situation, the copper analyst of nonferrous branch of SunSirs thinks that: the Sino US trade negotiation is close to reaching the first stage agreement, the supply of copper is always tight, the inventory is low, and the demand is stable, but it enters the seasonal demand off-season in December, and it is expected that copper will maintain a strong operation trend, but the strength of the bank is limited.
Relevant lwasted enterprwases: Jiangxi Copper Industry (600362), Tongling Nonferrous Metals (000630), Yunnan Copper Industry (000878).
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