- Price Data
According to the latest monitoring data of SunSirs, the average price of mainstream refineries of domestic naphtha was 6,077.50 RMB/ton as of August 31, up 0.83% from 6,027.50 RMB/ton at the beginning of that month, and rebounded after the price of refined naphtha fell in August.
The naphtha commodity index on August 31 was 75.01, unchanged from August 30, down 26.91% from the peak of 102.62 points in the cycle (2012-09-24), and up 77.58% from the low of 42.24 points on July 19, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2012-09-01 to date)
- Analysis of Influencing Factors
Products: Refining naphtha prices rebounded after falling in August. Affected by Typhoon Lichma in mid-August, some refining factories were shut down. Refining naphtha prices remained high that month. At present, the mainstream price of hydronaphtha is about 6,000 RMB/ton. On August 30, the price gap between naphtha and Brent crude oil fell to a nearly two-and-a-half-month low of $10.75 per ton in the Asian light distillate oil market, which was hampered by oversupply concerns.
Industry Chain: Upstream: According to SunSirs, U.S. WTI crude oil was $58.58 per barrel at the beginning of August, and $56.71 per barrel at the end of that month, with a monthly increase and decrease of -3.19%; Brent crude oil was $65.17 per barrel at the beginning of that month, and $61.08 per barrel at the end of August, with a monthly increase and decrease of -6.28%. In August, Sino-US trade relations fluctuated, global risky assets plunged, OPEC and other firm attitudes towards production reduction, as well as U.S. crude oil production and stock boost and other factors affected the trend of international crude oil prices. Downstream: Some Sinopec refineries were scheduled for September, and some suppliers were actively stocking up. According to SunSirs, affected by the rise of crude oil in the upstream, the decline of port stock and the improvement of market turnover, the domestic toluene market had been in a good general trend in August. Up to now, the mainstream price in East China is around 5,800-5,850 RMB/ton; the xylene market continues to rise, and the mainstream price in East China is about 6,200-6,250 RMB/ton.
Up to now, the domestic stock of pure benzene is relatively small, and the Korean plant overhaul and European overhaul are not yet finished. Global supply is tight, which boosts the market. Up to now, the price of pure benzene is 5,200-5,300 RMB/ton. In the PX market, the domestic PX market price at the end of August was 6,650 RMB/ton, the overall decline was 5.0%, and the PX external price maintained a downward trend.
Industry: According to SunSirs, In August 2019, there were five kinds of commodities rising in the energy sector, one of which rose more than 5%, accounting for 6.3% of the monitored commodities in the sector. The top three commodities were MTBE (8.16%), gasoline (2.24%) and methanol (1.22%). There are 11 kinds of commodities falling annually, four of which have fallen by more than 5%, accounting for 25% of the monitored commodities in the sector; the first three products falling are dimethyl ether (-9.03%), liquefied natural gas (-7.08%) and Brent crude oil (-6.28%). August average rise and fall was -1.52%.
- Market Forecast
SunSirs’ Energy analysts believe that naphtha is supported by the rise in international oil prices. Some refineries of Sinopec are scheduled for September and some suppliers are actively stocking up. With the coming of National Day, traffic will be regulated, environmental protection and production restriction. It is expected that the price of naphtha will rise in September, with an average price range of 5,900-6,300 RMB/ton.