In November 2022, the coke market experienced three rounds of ups and downs and one round of ups and downs. As of the date of publication, the price of quasi primary metallurgical coke in Shanxi was 2,400 RMB/ ton, and the price at the beginning of the month was 2,600 RMB/ ton, with a monthly drop of 7.69%.

In terms of supply: the coking coal market has maintained a stable and relatively strong operation in the near future, and the coke market is in a good mood. The inventory of coking coal has turned to the spot market, and the sales in the mining area has improved, boosting the market mentality. Referring to the policies in previous years, near the end of the year, there is a certain expectation of limited production in the mining area. The increase of areas with poor automobile transportation will affect the delivery of coking coal in the region, and the overall supply of coking coal is slightly tight. The demand of downstream enterprises for winter storage still exists. With the support of demand, the mining area has a strong attitude of price fixing, and some coal types are operating on the strong side, which has a strong boost to the coke market and is good for the coke market.

In November, the coke market experienced three rounds of ups and downs and one round of ups and downs, with a cumulative decline of 200-220 RMB/ ton. As of press release, the second round of increase of 100-110 RMB/ ton in some domestic production areas has not been responded by mainstream steel mills.

Since November, the steel price has always been weak and downward. The profits of steel mills have fluctuated near the profit and loss line for a long time, so the operating rate is at a low level as a whole. Under the influence of profits, the coke procurement has slowed down, the maintenance of blast furnaces has increased, and the demand for coke has declined. The lack of demand to support coke prices has dropped for three consecutive rounds, with a cumulative decrease of 300-330 RMB/ ton. As the coke market has dropped for three consecutive rounds, the price of coking coal is higher than the price of coke again. The cost pressure of coking enterprises has increased, and the profits have been damaged. The coking enterprises have launched an increase in order to relieve the cost pressure of enterprises. On November 25, with the expectation of winter storage demand from downstream steel plants, the game between coke and steel was broken, and the first round of increase came to fruition, up 100-110 RMB/ ton. In the future market, the coal coke steel industry chain is in a seasonal off-season as a whole. SunSirs expects the coke market to be bullish in the short term, but there is limited room for growth. The future market will focus on the price trend of coking coal and the coke inventory in all links.

This month, the coke market price of Shandong port was lowered, and the quasi primary ex warehouse price of the port rose from 2,780 RMB/ ton on October 27 to 2,625 RMB/ ton on October 27, down 155 RMB/ ton. However, the overall port inventory declined, Rizhao declined by 10,000 tons and Qingdao declined by 120,000 tons.

Freight is a barometer reflecting the port market mentality. When the port purchasing mentality is positive, the freight will rise accordingly, while the port is wait-and-see. When the purchasing intention is low, the freight price will decline significantly. The port freight price of this month fell significantly at the beginning of the month. With the opening of coke reduction, the port freight rate rose steadily. Near the end of the month, the port mentality was boosted by the expectation of downstream winter storage. The freight price rose steadily, mainly at a high level.

According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, the national coke output from January to October 2022 will be 396.84 million tons, up 0.1% year on year. The output in October was 38.83 million tons, up 6.9% year on year and 2.1% month on month; According to this calculation, the average daily coke output in October was 1.253 million tons, down 5.2% month on month.

According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, in October, China's crude steel output was 79.76 million tons, up 11.0% year on year; The daily average output was 2.5729 million tons, down 11.2% month on month. From January to October 2022, China's crude steel output will be 860.57 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.2%; The pig iron output was 726.89 million tons, down 1.2% year on year; The steel output was 1,116.39 million tons, down 1.4% year on year.

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