441 # silicon price trend

This week, the price of silicon metal continued to decline, and the downstream domestic and international market atmosphere was cold. Near the end of the month, metal silicon manufacturers gave up profits to withdraw funds. As of November 25, according to the price monitoring of SunSirs, the average price of 441 # metal silicon in the domestic market was 20,520 RMB/ton, down 3.16% on a weekly basis.

The price of 441 # silicon in each region on the 25th was as follows:

The price range of # 441 silicon metal in Huangpu Port was 20,100-20,300 RMB/ton, with an average price of 20,200 RMB/ton; The price range of # 441 silicon metal in Tianjin Port was 20,200-20,400 RMB/ton, with an average price of 20,300 RMB/ton; The price range of # 441 silicon metal in Kunming was 19,800-20,000 RMB/ton, with an average of 19,900 RMB/ton; The price range of # 441 silicon metal in Sichuan was 19,900-20,000 RMB/ton, with an average of 19,950 RMB/ton; The price range of # 441 silicon metal in Shanghai was 20,800-21,000 RMB/ton, with an average price of 20,900 RMB/ton.

Analysis review

Supply:

The number of metal silicon furnaces opened this week was temporarily stable. It is understood that the total number of metal silicon furnaces is 702. As of November 24, the metal silicon furnace opening rate was about 50.28%, 102 in Xinjiang, 64 in Sichuan and 68 in Yunnan. The epidemic situation in Xinjiang was slowing down, and the operating rate was expected to continue to increase; The cost of electricity in Southwest China was rising, and the output was expected to decrease. The resumption of production in Xinjiang had offset the decrease in the number of furnaces opened in the southwest.

Demand:

The price of aluminum alloy ADC12 rose by 200 RMB/ton, and the mainstream quotation was 18,800 RMB/ton. The supply of aluminum alloy raw materials was tight, but the downstream consumption was limited. There was a situation of cost inversion, and the price did not keep up.

The organic silicon DMC market fell in shock. The price reference was around 17,300-18,500 RMB/ton. The downstream demand was still tepid, the inventory was at a high level, and the enthusiasm for raw material procurement was not high.

The mainstream quotation of polysilicon was 295,000 RMB/ton. The overall capacity kept increasing. The downstream market demand was weakening, and there were no new orders. The output of polysilicon plants in Yunnan had been reduced due to hydropower.

Market outlook

At the end of the month, the capital chain of silicon plants was tightened, and terminal demand was poor, so manufacturers had to yield profits for shipment, and the price center of metal silicon fell. There is not enough rain this year, and the current price has included some production reduction expectations. In the short term, silicon metal will operate weakly and steadily. However, considering that the cost side of silicon price has support in the later period, and the market is still favorable for the listing of metal silicon futures, it is expected that the silicon price will fall limited.

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