Price trend

According to the data monitoring of SunSirs, the domestic NMP market fell in a ladder manner in November, and the prices in some regions had fallen to near the cost line by the end of the month. The average price of electronic NMP at the beginning of the month was 28,000 RMB/ton, and the average price at the end of the month was 22,333 RMB/ton, with a decline of 20.24%.

Analysis review

In November, the domestic NMP market turned sharply downward, and its performance fell continuously throughout the month, mainly due to the impact of cost and demand.

On the cost side: In November, the BDO market fell sharply unilaterally, by 31.27%. The contradiction between supply and demand was growing. Most manufacturers did not publish bidding prices. The market guidance price was reduced by about 500 RMB/ton every week, and the price was continuously lowered. The external guidance price of individual enterprises had dropped to 9,500 RMB/ton, maintaining a small number of contract users. At present, the BDO price has fallen below the cost line. It is expected that the BDO industry will actively limit and reduce production in the future.

Demand side: Affected by the cost of raw materials, there was a strong wait-and-see atmosphere in the NMP market, and the willingness of downstream to purchase was not strong. At the same time, domestic public health and security incidents escalated, and transportation in some areas was not smooth. Some of the main materials of lithium batteries have risen sharply, while the production and sales of some lithium battery manufacturers have declined. According to statistics, since 2021, the sales of new energy vehicles have risen sharply, resulting in the demand for lithium salt exceeding expectations, and the price of lithium carbonate, the main raw material of lithium ion batteries, has risen sharply. According to the data released on November 23 by SunSirs, the average spot price of battery grade lithium carbonate was close to 590,000 RMB/ton. At the beginning of January last year, the price of the raw material was about 50,000 RMB/ton, up nearly 12 times. Under the pressure of cost, lithium battery enterprises were not willing to purchase, and the demand for NMP was further suppressed.

Market outlook

NMP analysts of SunSirs believe that the downstream wait-and-see atmosphere is strong, and the purchase intention is not strong. At the same time, the price of raw material BDO is likely to continue to fall back. It is expected that the NMP market will continue to decline to the bottom in the near future, and the NMP market will decline to the near cost line for consolidation.

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