Price trend
According to the data monitoring of SunSirs, the price of phosphorus yellow in Yunnan and Guizhou market fell first and then rose this month, and the overall price fell. The average price of phosphorus yellow at the beginning of the month was 37,250 RMB/ton, and the average price at the end of the month was 32,625 RMB/ton. The price fell within the month by 12.42%.
Analysis review
The price of phosphorus yellow market fell first and then rose this month. On the whole, the price fell. The phosphorus yellow market was light in the first ten days of this month, with poor market demand and limited turnover of new orders. The phosphorus yellow manufacturer's inventory increased, the market price fell sharply, and the manufacturer basically did not make external quotation. The phosphorus yellow enterprise negotiated according to the price situation, and negotiated the price one by one. From the middle of November, the price of phosphorus yellow continued to drop to a low level of 27,500 RMB/ton, and the market price dropped by 10,000 yuan compared with the price of 37,250 RMB/ton at the beginning of the month. At this time, traders bought at the bottom, the downstream actively replenished goods, and trading increased. The phosphorus yellow market was rescued from the desperate situation, the market price rebounded and rose, and then stabilized. In late November, the market was light, and the downstream was cautious in receiving orders and purchasing at a lower price. The manufacturer's price decreased slightly, stimulating downstream and traders to purchase, the market improved and the pressure on shipment was relieved. Near the end of the month, the manufacturer's intention of low price shipment was low, and the market price rose again. As of November 28, the manufacturer's quotation was 32,000-33,000 RMB/ton, and the actual transaction was mainly negotiated on a single basis.
In terms of phosphate rock, according to the data monitoring of SunSirs, as of November 28, the reference average price of 30% grade phosphate rock in China was around 1,056 RMB/ton. Compared with November 1 (the reference price of phosphate rock was 1,054 RMB/ton), the price increased by 2 RMB/ton, or 0.16%.By the end of the 29th, the phosphate fertilizer market at the downstream terminal of phosphate rock had warmed up compared with the previous period, and would provide some psychological support for phosphate rock from the bottom. In addition to the continuous support from the supply side, the phosphate rock datagrapher of SunSirs believes that in the short term, the domestic phosphate rock market will mainly continue to operate at a high level.
In terms of coke, the coke market experienced three rounds of decline and one round of increase in November. As of the 29th, the price of quasi primary metallurgical coke in Shanxi was 2,400 RMB/ton, and the price at the beginning of the month was 2,600 RMB/ton, with a monthly drop of 7.69%. Since November, the steel price had always been weak and downward. The profits of steel mills had fluctuated near the profit and loss line for a long time, so the operating rate was at a low level as a whole. Under the influence of profit, the coke procurement had slowed down, the maintenance of blast furnaces had increased, the demand for coke had declined, and the coke price had dropped for three consecutive rounds due to lack of demand support, with a cumulative decrease of 300-330 RMB/ton. As the coke market had dropped for three consecutive rounds, the price of coking coal was higher than the price of coke again. The cost pressure of coking enterprises had increased, and the profits had been damaged. The coking enterprises had launched an increase in order to relieve the cost pressure of enterprises. On November 25, with the expectation of winter storage demand from downstream steel plants, the game between coke and steel was broken, and the first round of increase came to fruition, up 100-110 RMB/ton. In the future, the coal coke steel industry chain is currently in a seasonal slack season. SunSirs expects the coke market to rise in the short term, but there is limited room for growth. The future market will focus on the price trend of coking coal and the coke inventory in all links.
On the demand side, phosphoric acid prices fell in November. On November 1, the average price of phosphoric acid was 9,420 RMB/ton, and on November 28, the average price was 8,612.5 RMB/ton. The price fell within the month by 8.57%. The overall market price fell mainly. At present, downstream manufacturers and dealers operate cautiously, fearing that once they buy phosphoric acid, it will continue to decline, and the industry has a strong wait-and-see mood. With the recovery of phosphorus yellow price at the end of the month, it is expected that the phosphoric acid market price will be stable and good in the short term.
Market outlook
According to the phosphorus yellow analyst from SunSirs, the price of phosphorus yellow in Yunnan and Guizhou market fell first and then rose this month. On the whole, the price fell. The market demand was light, the price of phosphorus yellow once fell to near the cost price, and the downstream and traders bought at the bottom, so the phosphorus yellow market improved and stabilized. At the end of the month, the price of phosphorus yellow rebounded again, considering the cost of next month. It is reported that the electricity price may be raised again next month, and phosphorus yellow manufacturers are willing to support the price when the cost increases. It is expected that the phosphorus yellow market will be stable in the short term, supplemented by a small increase. In addition, the transportation in some regions is not smooth at present, and there is uncertainty about the market, so it should be paid attention to the future market.
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