According to the data from SunSirs, there will be two rounds of big rises in the soybean meal market in 2022. In the second half of the year, the soybean meal market will hit a new high, rising from July 1 to the end of November. The highest price will exceed 5,500 RMB/ ton, 208 RMB/ ton higher than the 5,364 RMB/ ton on March 23 in the first half of the year. On July 1, the average market price of soybean meal was 4,118 RMB/ ton, and on November 28, the average market price of soybean meal was 5,120 RMB/ ton, up 24.33%.
According to the monitoring of SunSirs, the main reasons for the rising market of soybean meal in the second half of the year are: insufficient supply of imported raw materials, low stock of soybean meal, and rigid demand for surface feed.
Supply side: In May, the number of imported soybeans was the highest in the year. Since July, the number of imported raw soybeans has been declining. From July to August, the number of imported soybeans was less than 8 million tons; In August, 7.16 million tons of soybeans were imported, a month on month decrease of 9%. The quantity of imported soybeans in September increased slightly compared with that in August, with 7.72 million tons imported. After the National Day holiday, the decline in the quantity of imported soybeans was particularly obvious, mainly due to the delay in the arrival of imported soybeans in Hong Kong. The quantity of imported soybeans in October was only 4.4 million tons, down 19% year on year, the lowest monthly import since 2014.
Inventory: In July, due to the decline in the number of imported soybeans as raw materials, the operating rate of soybean oil plants continued to decline. In addition, the terminal feed industry entered the peak season, the purchase demand of feed plants increased, and the soybean meal inventory continued to decline. Especially after the National Day holiday, the soybean oil plants were shut down for maintenance, and the supply was tight. The soybean meal inventory was constantly low. By the end of October, the soybean meal inventory had fallen for more than 4 months, down to the first line of 220,000 tons, down nearly four times from the peak of 1.07 million tons in July. In November, the tight situation of soybean meal inventory did not ease, and continued to decline, less than 200,000 tons.
Demand side: In the second half of the year, especially in the third quarter, the boom of the terminal breeding industry increased, and the demand for soybean meal purchased by feed factories improved. The output of industrial feed increased continuously from July to September. According to the data of China Feed Industry Association, the national industrial feed output in September 2022 was 28.33 million tons, an increase of 7.5% month on month and 3.1% year on year. The fourth quarter is the traditional peak season for breeding. The profits of pig raising have rebounded, the enthusiasm of feed factories for stocking has increased, and the amount of soybean meal purchased has increased. In October, due to the tight supply of raw soybean meal, shortage and high price, it was difficult for feed plants to start up, and they shut down for maintenance one after another. Feed production began to decline slightly. In the second half of the year as a whole, the demand side is still bullish.
SunSirs agricultural product analyst believes that the soybean meal market will remain relatively strong in 2022 as a whole, with prices hitting new highs. In December, imported soybeans will be concentrated in Hong Kong, and the tight situation of raw material supply will improve. The soybean meal market may continue to retreat. It is expected that the soybean meal price will be slightly adjusted in the future, which will have little impact on the year's soaring pattern.
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