According to the monitoring of SunSirs, the average market price of rapeseed meal was 4,168 RMB/ ton on November 1 and 3,854 RMB/ ton on November 25, with a decline of 7.53% during the period, 9.06% lower than that on October 1.
In November, the spot price of rapeseed meal kept falling. In terms of supply, before November, the import of rapeseed was relatively small, the supply of rapeseed was insufficient, the operating rate of oil plants was not high, and the rapeseed stock was at a low level in recent years, supporting the price of rapeseed. Since November, a large number of domestic imports of rapeseed and rapeseed meal have arrived in Hong Kong. The rapeseed inventory in domestic coastal areas has rebounded, and the tight supply of rapeseed meal will be eased. According to statistics, as of November 18, the import of rapeseed has increased to 435000 tons, an increase of 170000 tons on a weekly basis, the highest level in the same period over the years. As of November 21, the inventory of imported granular rapeseed meal in East China had reached 52000 tons. In terms of demand, the weather is cooling, the feeding of aquaculture is weakening, the rapeseed meal ushers in the traditional off-season, the demand for rapeseed meal is weakening, and the negative market is weakening.
Soybean meal: According to the monitoring of SunSirs, the average market price of soybean meal on November 1 was 5,526 RMB/ ton, and on November 25 was 5,308 RMB/ ton, with a decrease of 3.94%. The price difference of soybean and rapeseed meal is large, and the substitution advantage of rapeseed meal is obvious, which supports the rapeseed meal market to a certain extent.
In terms of supply, due to the small quantity of imported rapeseed in the early stage, the domestic rapeseed inventory was at a low level, supporting the price of rapeseed. Canada's rapeseed production increased in the new season. From November to December, the number of imported rapeseed in China increased, and the domestic rapeseed supply is expected to increase. In terms of demand, in winter, aquaculture is in the traditional off-season, and the demand for rapeseed meal is declining. According to the analysis of rapeseed meal by SunSirs, it is expected that the trend of rapeseed meal will be more volatile and weak, and it is also necessary to pay attention to the changes of soybean meal market.
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