Price trend

According to the statistics of SunSirs, the price of seamless tubes fell slightly in November. At the beginning of the month, the quotation of 20 #, 108 * 4.5 seamless tubes was 5,007.5 RMB/ton, and at the end of the month, it dropped to 4,822.5 RMB/ton, down 3.69% and down 18.71% year on year.

Analysis review

On the upstream side, the price of raw material tube blank fell. The average price was about 3,820 RMB/ton, down 5.7% from the price of 4,050 RMB/ton in October. By the end of this month, most regions of the country had launched emergency response to heavily polluted weather, and the production of tube plants in some regions had been affected to some extent, mainly including seamless tube manufacturers in Hebei and Shandong. With the release of environmental protection restrictions, the operating rate of seamless tube plants had maintained a small increase.

In terms of demand, the epidemic situation was repeated all over the country. The changeable market not only affected the production enthusiasm of manufacturers, but also greatly reduced the purchasing enthusiasm of downstream steel enterprises for seamless steel tubes.

Exports: in October, China's exports of seamless steel tubes reached 440,400 tons, down 22.11% month on month and up 49.69% year on year; From January to October, the accumulated export of seamless tubes was 3.9237 million tons, with a year-on-year growth of 56.48%. In October, China's net exports of seamless steel tubes were 432,400 tons, down 22.84% month on month and up 51.35% year on year; From January to October, China's net export of seamless steel tubes was 3.8246 million tons, with a year-on-year growth of 59.31%.

In November, the operating rate of Shandong seamless tubes rose and the inventory rose. As of the end of the month, Shandong seamless tube had a total social inventory of 755,000 tons, with an operating rate of 55.2%.

Market outlook

To sum up, in November, due to the low demand season and the impact of epidemic control in many places, the national logistics was blocked, the downstream procurement intention was general, and the price of seamless tubes was weak. As the end of 2022 is approaching, the off-season effect is prominent. The demand in many regions, such as northwest, north, east and southwest, declines. The demand for seamless tubes across the country may hardly improve. Market sentiment is dominated by pessimism. There is no terminal stock and traders have no intention of winter storage. It is expected that the seamless tube market price will continue to operate in a weak way in December.

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