Price trend

In November 2022, the domestic market of 1 # lead ingot fluctuated upward. The average price of the domestic market was 15,085 RMB/ton at the beginning of the month and 15,475 RMB/ton at the end of the month, with a monthly increase of 2.59%.

On November 28, the lead commodity index was 93.97, down 0.03 points from the previous day, down 29.88% from the cycle's highest point of 134.01 points (2016-11-29), and up 25.91% from the lowest point of 74.63 points on March 19, 2015. (Note: the cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

Analysis review

From the monthly K column chart, it can be seen that the lead price has fluctuated mainly in recent half a year, with the overall rise and fall within a reasonable range and a limited range. It can be seen from the weekly K-bar chart that the lead price fell more recently and rose less. The overall trend was downward, but the decline was small, and the overall trend remained mainly narrow fluctuations in low season. After entering September, the lead ingot market began to recover. The peak season ended in late November, and the lead price declined.

In the first half of November, the trend of the peak season continued, and the lead price rose significantly. Since the middle of November, with the cold weather, the peak season for battery enterprises had come to an end, and the lead price was affected to fall back slightly, but it still remained at a high level. Fundamentally speaking, the import of ore end in terms of supply was still tight, the overall operating rate of domestic production enterprises had slightly increased, and the overall supply of lead had slightly increased compared with the early stage. However, as the price of lead ingots continued to rise recently, the downstream receiving of goods had slowed down to a certain extent, and the overall inventory of lead ingots rose. The production of downstream battery enterprises had been good since entering the peak season, but as the weather turns cold, the peak season was coming to an end, and the market expects the demand for lead to decline in the future, but the recent export performance was fair, the export arbitrage window was open, the market expectation was fair, and the price remained consolidation trend at a high level.

Market outlook

On the whole, the lead ingot market is still positive. It is expected that the future market will remain stable to be strong, and the trend will mainly follow macro factors in the short term.

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