Price trend

According to the data of SunSirs, the average early price of silver market on November 30 was 4,917 RMB/kg, up 7.75% from the average early price of spot market at the beginning of the month (November 1) of 4,567.33 RMB/kg; Compared with the early average price of spot market at the beginning of the year (January 1), it was 4,770 RMB/kg, an increase of 3.08%.

On November 30, the spot gold market price was 406.97 RMB/g, up 3.79% from the early average of 392.11 RMB/g at the beginning of the month (November 1); Compared with the early average price of 372.37 RMB/g in the spot market at the beginning of the year (January 1), the increase was 9.29%.

In the long term, the trend of precious metal prices tends to be the same, with slightly different amplitudes.

Overview of precious metal fundamentals

1. Overview of precious metal market

On the last trading day (November 29), the gold trading volume of Shanghai Gold Exchange was 9262 kg, down 8.95% from the previous trading day. Silver turnover was 935,836 kg, up 6.11% from the previous trading day. The gold inventory of Shanghai Futures Exchange was 3,072 kg, unchanged from the previous trading day. Silver inventory was 17,305kg higher than the previous trading day to 1,687,985kg.

2. Overview of ETF Data

As of November 25, 2022, the position of SPDR gold ETF increased by 2.6 tons (+0.29%) to 908.96 tons compared with last week; The newly announced position of gold SPDR ETF was 908.09 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day.

s of November 25, 2022, the position of SLV silver ETF increased by 197.6 tons (+1.34%) to 14,933.31 tons compared with last week. The newly announced position of silver SLV ETF was 14,919.00 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day.

3. Macro data from Europe and the United States

The University of Michigan consumer status index in November was 57.8, expected to be 65.3, and the previous value was 65.6. The consumer expectation index was 52.7, previous value was 56.2.

The number of Americans receiving unemployment benefits at the beginning of last week was 240,000, expected to be 225,000, and the previous value was revised from 222,00 to 223,000.

On November 23, the yield of the US 30-year bond fell to 3.787%, a new low since October 7.

In November, the PMI of manufacturing industry in the euro area was 47.3, expected to be 46, and the previous value was 46.4; The service industry PMI was 48.6, expected to be 48.1, and the previous value was 48.6. The euro area comprehensive PMI in November was 47.8, expected to be 47, and the previous value was 47.3.

The euro zone consumer confidence index in November was initially - 23.9, expected to be - 26, and the previous value was - 27.6.

4. Events in the month

The EU's attitude towards Russia's oil price ceiling is approaching, softening on many key terms; The US Treasury Department issued the Russian oil transportation guide.

Minutes of the Federal Reserve Meeting: Most people believe that interest rate increases will be slowed down soon, suggesting that the probability of recession next year is 50%.

Minutes of the October meeting of the European Central Bank: Inflation was still too high, fear of high inflation was deep-rooted, and it was hard to stop raising interest rates. How much to increase remained to be discussed; Hawks believed that there was limited room to slow interest rate hikes.

The domestic central bank (China) lowered the deposit reserve ratio.

Market outlook

From the recent performance of precious metals, it was relatively strong. Although there were relatively many hawkish views issued by the Federal Reserve recently, the price of precious metals had not been greatly affected. It is expected that precious metals will continue this trend in the near future.

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