In November, the domestic methanol market was weak and volatile. According to the monitoring data of SunSirs, the domestic methanol market in East China in early November was 2,863 RMB/ton, and the price at the end of the month was 2,731 RMB/ton. The price fell 3.68% in the month, with the maximum amplitude of 6.02%, down 11.94% year on year.
According to the price monitoring of SunSirs, according to the price monitoring of SunSirs, in November 2022, there was a total of one commodity in the energy sector that rose month on month in the list of commodity price rises and falls, with dimethyl ether (0.65%) rising. There were 12 kinds of commodities that declined month on month, and 6 kinds of commodities that declined by more than 5%, accounting for 46.2% of the number of monitored commodities in this sector; The top three decline products were asphalt (-17.76%), LNG (-17.17%) and WTI crude oil (-9.63%). The average rise and fall of last month was -6.49%.
At the beginning of last month, the market in East China rebounded at a low level, and the transaction was fair. Futures stopped falling and rebounded, production facilities of major enterprises in some regions stopped, supply decreased, and market buying improved. The logistics in some regions is limited but the demand is weak, and the downstream receiving price is weak.
In the first ten days of last month, the domestic methanol market was dominated by the recent weakness, mainly due to the low demand and general trading atmosphere. At the same time, the supply is relatively abundant, and the contradiction between supply and demand is still an important factor restricting the development of the methanol market. The short-term methanol market or the weak situation is dominated.
In the last ten days of last month, the domestic methanol market was in shock, and the fluctuation range was not large. The main reason was supply and demand. The supply is abundant, but the existing demand has not been significantly boosted, and the short-term domestic methanol market is mainly weak.
At the end of the month, the methanol market fell in shock. Although the crude oil rebounded at a low level, the boost to the methanol market is limited. The continuous decline in the arrival of coal in Northwest China has led to the continued downward cost support, the continuous recovery of the operating rate of production enterprises, and the continued weakness of demand. Most production enterprises and traders mainly discharge their inventories.
In terms of external market, as of November 30, the closing price of CFR Southeast Asia methanol market was $357.50-358.50/ton, down $1/ton. US Gulf Methanol Market closed at 88.75-89.75 cents/gallon; FOB Rotterdam methanol market closed at 294.50-295.50 euros/ton, down 2 euros/ton.
In terms of devices, only 4 devices are planned to be overhauled in December, including 3 in Chongqing and 1 in Sichuan, with a total capacity of 2.22 million tons/year. In December, a total of 12 units are expected to be restored, involving a capacity of 3.15 million tons/year.
In December, coal may support daily consumption and thus price due to low temperature, so methanol cost side is still supported, but the contradiction between supply and demand is difficult to change significantly in the short term. Methanol analysts from SunSirs predicted that China methanol market in December would be dominated by consolidation.
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11.1-11.30