Price trend

According to the monitoring data of SunSirs, toluene continued its downward trend this week, with a wider decline. The price was 7,230 RMB/ton on November 25 and 6,640 RMB/ton on Friday (December 2), down 8.16% from last week; and 10.12% higher than the same period last year.

Analysis review

Due to the weak trend of crude oil, combined with poor domestic demand for toluene, the market discussion was light, and the industry was bearish about the future market, and the price continued to decline last week.

In terms of external markets, the price of toluene in Asia fell this week. On Thursday (December 1), the price of toluene imported in South Korea was 777 US dollars/ton, down 67 US dollars/ton year on year, or 7.94%.

In terms of crude oil, concerns about the risk of global economic recession remained, and oil demand was under pressure. However, the OPEC+ production reduction rumors and the news that the US crude oil inventory fell more than expected brought good news, and the oil price rebounded after falling in the week. As of December 2, Brent price this week rose by 1.94 US dollars/barrel, or 2.32%, compared with last week; WTI rose by 3.7 US dollars/barrel, or 4.85%.

Downstream: In terms of TDI, the price of TDI in East China fell this week. On November 25, it was 17,500 RMB/ton, and on December 2, it was 17,233 RMB/ton, down 1.52% from last week and up 19.88% from the same period last year.

In terms of PX, domestic PX prices fell this week. On November 25, the price was 8,600 RMB/ton, and on December 2, the price was 8,300 RMB/ton, down 3.49% from last week and up 23.88% from the same period last year.

In terms of gasoline, this week's gasoline continued its downward trend. The price was 8,082 RMB/ton on November 25 and 7,836 RMB/ton on December 2, down 3.04% from last week and down 0.64% from the same period last year.

Market outlook

In terms of crude oil, major oil producing countries decided to maintain the established production reduction target, and the oil price was somewhat suppressed. Under the background of the risk of global economic recession, energy demand is depressed; However, the supply side is still tight, and the market will remain volatile in the short term. Continue to pay attention to the geopolitical situation, the latest OPEC+ production policy, the stock dynamics of U.S. crude oil and refined oil, and the impact of global economic conditions on crude oil prices.

The market fundamentals are poor, and the trend of crude oil is weak in the short term. It is expected that toluene will be dominated by weak operation. Pay attention to the impact of crude oil, external market trend, toluene unit dynamics and downstream demand on prices.

If you have any questions, please feel free to contact SunSirs with support@sunsirs.com