Price trend

According to the monitoring of SunSirs, the price of ammonium nitrate rose in 2022. The price at the end of the year was 4,280 RMB/ton, the price at the beginning of the year was 3,960 RMB/ton, and the annual increase was 8.08%. The maximum price of ammonium nitrate in 2022 was 4,650 RMB/ton, the minimum price in 2022 was 3,930 RMB/ton, and the maximum amplitude in 2022 was 18.32%.

Analysis review

It can be seen from the trend that the price trend of ammonium nitrate throughout the year can be roughly divided into three stages. The first stage is from the beginning of the year to the end of July, when the market price of ammonium nitrate rose in shock; The second stage is from the beginning of August to the end of October, when the market price of ammonium nitrate fell back. The third stage is from the beginning of November to the end of the year, when the market trend of ammonium nitrate rose. The specific market conditions are as follows:

The first stage is from the beginning of the year to the end of July. The market price of ammonium nitrate rose in shock. The domestic market price rose from 3,960 RMB/ton at the beginning of the year to the price of 4,650 RMB/ton at the end of April, with a stage increase of 17.42%. At this stage, the market price of ammonium nitrate rose in shock. Due to the mask problem, the production in some areas was limited, the operation of ammonium nitrate manufacturers on the site was unstable, and the spot supply on the site was tight. In addition, this stage was in the peak season of preparing fertilizer in the Spring Festival, and the demand for downstream nitro compound fertilizer was increasing, but the civil explosive industry was gradually entering the low consumption season, and the demand for ammonium nitrate was subject to certain restrictions. However, at this stage, the market price of ammonium nitrate raw material nitric acid and liquid ammonia had risen significantly. At this stage, the supply of liquid ammonia was tightened significantly, and the price had reached the highest point in the year. The sharp rise in the price trend of raw material market was good for the domestic ammonium nitrate market, and the price trend of ammonium nitrate market was rising.

The second stage is from the beginning of August to the end of October. The market price of ammonium nitrate fell back. The domestic market price fell from 4,650 RMB/ton at the beginning of August to 3,930 RMB/ton at the end of October, with a decline of 15.48%. During this period, the domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers operated stably, the supply of goods in the site was normal, the goods were generally transported in the site, and the manufacturers had accumulated stocks. The upstream coal price of the terminal was controlled by the state, and the downstream demand was general. The shipping market of ammonium nitrate manufacturers was normal, and the downstream purchased mainly on demand. The demand for downstream nitro compound fertilizer had come to an end. There were still many domestic downstream civil explosive industries out of production. In addition, the sales of civil explosive industries were general. The domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers were operating normally, and the market price of ammonium nitrate w as lower.

The third stage is from the beginning of November to the end of the year. The market price of ammonium nitrate returned to the rising stage. The price of ammonium nitrate rose from the price of 3,930 RMB/ton to the price of 4,280 RMB/ton at the end of the year, with a stage increase of 8.91%. At this stage, the operation of domestic ammonium nitrate plant was relatively stable, and domestic supply was normal. However, the price of raw liquid ammonia rose, and the cost support was obvious. In addition, the downstream civil explosive industry entered the peak season of the industry at this stage, and the demand increased. The downstream actively stocked up, which provided some positive support for ammonium nitrate. Affected by the positive demand, the domestic ammonium nitrate market trend rose. However, due to repeated outbreaks, transportation in some regions was limited to a certain extent, and the market growth of ammonium nitrate was limited to a certain extent.

According to the 5-year market price data of ammonium nitrate monitored by SunSirs, the market price of ammonium nitrate in 2022 was at the highest level in the same period, but the overcapacity of ammonium nitrate in China was relatively serious, most of the capacity devices were in a shutdown state, and some manufacturers had permanently withdrawn from the market.

It can be seen from the following two figures that the market price trend of ammonium nitrate is greatly affected by nitric acid and liquid ammonia. In 2022, the market prices of nitric acid and liquid ammonia rose to varying degrees. The raw materials benefited the domestic ammonium nitrate market. In 2022, the market price of ammonium nitrate rose 8.08%.

Market outlook

It can be seen from the price trend data of ammonium nitrate over the years that the fourth quarter is the sales peak season of the ammonium nitrate market, and the fourth quarter is the sales peak season of the downstream civil explosive industry, forming a strong positive support for the ammonium nitrate market. The market price of raw nitric acid and liquid ammonia is also an important factor affecting the price trend of the domestic ammonium nitrate market. In 2023, the ammonia market may face new challenges. The cost side is still supported, the supply side is loose, and the demand side is mixed. With the influence of seasonal light and peak seasons, the liquid ammonia market will still fluctuate sharply. To sum up, the market price of ammonium nitrate in 2023 may get a certain supporting effect. It is estimated that the mainstream price of ammonium nitrate in 2023 will be 3,500-4,300 RMB/ton.

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