Macroeconomics

1. [Reverse Repurchase Agreements] The People's Bank of China (PBOC) issued a tender announcement for open market reverse repurchase agreements, indicating that to maintain ample liquidity in the banking system, it will conduct a 900 billion RMB reverse repurchase operation on January 15th using a fixed quantity, fixed interest rate tender, and multiple price bidding method. The term is 6 months (181 days).

2. [Imports and Exports] According to customs statistics, my country's total foreign trade imports and exports reached 45.47 trillion RMB in 2025, a 3.8% increase. Exports totaled 26.99 trillion RMB, a 6.1% increase; imports totaled 18.48 trillion RMB, a 0.5% increase.

3. [Automobiles] The latest data released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) shows that in 2025, automobile production and sales reached 34.531 million and 34.4 million units respectively, representing year-on-year increases of 10.4% and 9.4%. Production and sales reached a new historical high, maintaining the top position globally for 17 consecutive years.

4. [US Tariffs] The White House announced that starting on the 15th, a 25% ad valorem import tariff will be imposed on certain imported semiconductors, semiconductor manufacturing equipment, and related products.

5. [Federal Reserve Beige Book] The Federal Reserve's Beige Book showed that in eight of the Federal Reserve's twelve districts, overall economic activity showed slight to moderate growth, three districts reported no change, and one district reported a slight decline. This represents an improvement compared to the previous three reporting periods (when most districts reported little change). Most banks reported slight to moderate growth in consumer spending during this period, mainly due to the holiday shopping season.

Energy

1. [Crude Oil] On January 14th, international crude oil futures closed higher. The settlement price for the March contract of US WTI crude oil futures was $61.88 per barrel, an increase of $0.95 or 1.6%. The settlement price for the March contract of Brent crude oil futures was $66.52 per barrel, an increase of $1.05 or 1.6%. 2. [Crude Oil] According to the inventory report released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), U.S. crude oil inventories increased by 3.391 million barrels to 422.447 million barrels in the week ending January 9th. Total U.S. gasoline inventories increased by 8.977 million barrels to 251.013 million barrels, the largest weekly increase since December 2023. Distillate fuel inventories, including diesel and heating oil, decreased by 29,000 barrels to 129.244 million barrels.

3. [Crude Oil] The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) released its monthly oil market report on January 14th, maintaining its previous forecast for global oil demand growth in 2026 and publishing its 2027 oil demand forecast for the first time. The report predicts that global average daily oil demand in 2026 will increase by 1.38 million barrels compared to 2025, reaching 106.52 million barrels; and global average daily oil demand in 2027 will increase by 1.34 million barrels compared to 2026, reaching 107.86 million barrels.

4. [Crude Oil] On January 14th, Citi analysts predicted that Brent crude oil prices could rise to $70 per barrel in the next three months as geopolitical risks accumulate. Citi raised its 0-3 month Brent crude oil price outlook from the previous $65 per barrel to $70, citing geopolitical risks as an upward pressure.

5. [Petroleum Coke] On January 14th, Huaxiang Petrochemical's petroleum coke price was 2,970 RMB/ton, an increase of 20 RMB/ton from the previous trading day, with a sulfur content of 2.7, a delayed coking unit capacity of 400,000 tons/year, and a daily output of 450 tons.

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