Macroeconomics

1. [Interest Rate Cut] Central Bank: Effective January 19, 2026, the central bank will lower the re-lending and rediscount rates by 0.25 percentage points. After the reduction, the interest rates for 3-month, 6-month, and 1-year agricultural and small business re-lending will be 0.95%, 1.15%, and 1.25%, respectively. The rediscount rate will be 1.5%, the collateralized supplementary lending rate will be 1.75%, and the interest rate for special structural monetary policy tools will be 1.25%.

2. [M2] Central Bank: At the end of December, the broad money supply (M2) balance was 340.29 trillion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 8.5%. The narrow money supply (M1) balance was 115.51 trillion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 3.8%. The currency in circulation (M0) balance was 14.13 trillion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 10.2%. Net cash injection for the year totaled 1.31 trillion RMB.

3. [RMB Loans] Central Bank: At the end of December, the balance of RMB loans was 271.91 trillion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 6.4%. RMB loans increased by 16.27 trillion RMB for the whole year.

4. [Social Financing Scale] Central Bank: According to preliminary statistics, the outstanding social financing scale at the end of 2025 was 442.12 trillion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 8.3%.

The cumulative increase in social financing scale for the whole year of 2025 was 35.6 trillion RMB, an increase of 3.34 trillion RMB compared to the previous year. Of this, RMB loans to the real economy increased by 15.91 trillion RMB, a decrease of 1.13 trillion RMB year-on-year; foreign currency loans to the real economy decreased by 204.3 billion RMB (in RMB equivalent), a decrease of 187.3 billion RMB year-on-year; entrusted loans increased by 120.3 billion RMB, an increase of 178 billion RMB year-on-year; trust loans increased by 368.2 billion RMB, a decrease of 29.4 billion RMB year-on-year; un-discounted bank acceptance bills increased by 11.2 billion RMB, an increase of 340.5 billion RMB year-on-year; net financing from corporate bonds was 2.39 trillion RMB, an increase of 482.5 billion RMB year-on-year; net financing from government bonds was 13.84 trillion RMB, an increase of 2.54 trillion RMB year-on-year; and domestic equity financing by non-financial enterprises was 476.3 billion RMB, an increase of 186.3 billion RMB year-on-year. 5. [US Initial Jobless Claims] The number of initial jobless claims in the US fell by 9,000 last week to 198,000, significantly lower than the market expectation of 215,000, reaching its lowest level since November last year. The four-week moving average fell to 205,000, a two-year low.

6. [South Korea Interest Rates] The Bank of Korea maintained its benchmark interest rate at 2.5%, keeping it unchanged for the fifth consecutive time, in line with market expectations. Bank of Korea Governor Lee Chang-yong pointed out that the central bank is focusing on housing prices, debt, and exchange rate fluctuations. If the central bank wants to stabilize the foreign exchange market through policy interest rates, it must raise interest rates by 200 to 300 basis points.

Agricultural Products

1. [White Sugar] On January 15th, Guangxi sugar manufacturers and distributors slightly lowered their new sugar prices to 5,280-5,360 RMB/ton (ex-factory price at sugar mills in Chongzuo, Nanning, Guigang, Liuzhou, Hechi, Laibin, and Fangchenggang), a decrease of 10 RMB/ton compared to the price on the 14th. Industrial inventory was 1.0571 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 62,100 tons.

2. [Grains] According to data from the General Administration of Customs, in December 2025, China imported 10.864 million tons of grain; the cumulative import from January to December was 140.563 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 10.8%.

3. [Soybeans] ANEC stated that the estimated Brazilian soybean exports in January 2026 will be 3.73 million tons, higher than the 2.4 million tons estimated a week earlier.

4. [Corn] ANEC said that Brazilian corn exports in January 2026 will reach 3.27 million tons, higher than the 2.85 million tons estimated a week earlier, and a 2.7% increase compared to 3.185 million tons in the same period last year.

5. [Palm Oil] The head of research at CIMB Investment Bank pointed out in a research report that Indonesia decided on January 14th to maintain the current B40 policy (blending 40% palm oil-based biodiesel into diesel fuel) in 2026.

6. [Palm Oil] Edi Abdurrahman, head of the Indonesian National Plantation Fund Agency, said that Indonesia will increase the export tax on crude palm oil from 10% to 12.5% ​​starting March 1, 2026. The tax rate on refined products will also increase by 2.5 percentage points.

7. [Palm Oil] India's palm oil imports in December were 507,204 tons, a decrease of approximately 20% month-on-month, the lowest since April 2025. In comparison, India's average monthly palm oil imports in the 2024/25 season were approximately 632,000 tons.

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