According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the price of locally refined petroleum coke will significantly rise at the beginning of 2025 and fluctuate at a high level in the later period. On January 1st, the mainstream price of petroleum coke in the local refining industry was 1,615.00 RMB/ton, and as of December 31st, the mainstream market price was around 2,598.25 RMB/ton, with an annual increase of 60.88%; Among them, the highest price in 2025 was around 2,855.75 RMB/ton on November 5th, and the lowest price was 1,602.50 RMB/ton on January 2nd, with a maximum annual fluctuation of 78.21%.

According to the price data of Shandong Zhongsu petroleum coke, the whole year can be divided into three core stages:

The price of petroleum coke surged significantly from January to February, driven by supply contraction and downstream stocking: some refining and coking units were shut down or reduced production before and after the Spring Festival, resulting in a decrease in petroleum coke supply. Coupled with the concentrated release of demand for aluminum carbon and negative electrode enterprises to replenish inventory, market resources became tight; In late February, the transaction volume of petroleum coke from local refineries was average. In the early stage, the price of petroleum coke rose sharply, and downstream costs were under pressure. Purchasing was cautious, and refinery petroleum coke shipments were limited. In addition, some refineries adjusted their petroleum coke indicators, resulting in a continuous decline in petroleum coke prices.

The price fluctuated and fell from March to June, mainly due to the concentration of imported coke at ports and wait-and-see demand: US coke was stimulated by tariff expectations and arrived in the second quarter, leading to the accumulation of port inventory and a decrease in downstream acceptance of high prices. Market transactions were mainly driven by demand. In addition, the benchmark price for Shandong's pre baked anode procurement continued to fall from April to June, increasing market wait-and-see sentiment.

The price fluctuated and rose from July to December, mainly due to the increase in refinery maintenance and the recovery of negative electrode demand. In the second half of the year, the number of domestic refineries shutting down for maintenance increased, and the supply of petroleum coke from local refineries continued to decrease; Downstream negative electrode material companies are actively purchasing, and the benchmark price for Shandong's pre baked anode procurement continued to rise from July to December, supporting the local petroleum coke market.

2026 Petroleum Coke Market Forecast

Cost perspective: In terms of cost, crude oil prices are an important factor affecting the price of petroleum coke, and the uncertainty of future crude oil prices will lead to fluctuations in petroleum coke prices. In 2025, international crude oil surged at the beginning of the year and then fluctuated downwards throughout the year. The central market has significantly shifted downwards compared to the previous two years. According to data from SunSirs, Brent crude oil fell by 17.56% in 2025. The core logic behind this is the combined effect of oversupply and weak demand in the global market under the influence of US tariff policies and increased OEPC production, as well as a short-term rebound caused by geopolitical disturbances. In 2026, the fundamentals of crude oil supply and demand tend to be loose, and the pressure of oversupply will not decrease. Even if OPEC suspends production in the first quarter, there will still be pressure on oil prices from oversupply in the first half of the year. Overall, there is a high probability that the oil price center will shift downwards in 2026, but the space is relatively limited, and the average price of Brent crude oil may remain at the level of $55-65.

Supply side: By 2025, the overall processing capacity of China's delayed coking units will be relatively stable, with a total production capacity of approximately 146 million tons per year. However, due to factors such as unit maintenance and raw materials, the utilization rate of production capacity has declined. The total production capacity of delayed coking units in local refineries accounts for 47%, ranking first; Sinopec accounts for 31%, ranking second; PetroChina accounts for 16%, ranking third; CNOOC accounts for 6%. In 2026, there will be some plans to increase production capacity, and the overall processing capacity is expected to slightly improve. The main projects to add delayed coking units in China in 2026 include: PetroChina Guangdong Petrochemical's 6 million tons/year delayed coking unit, Huajin Aramco Petrochemical Co., Ltd.'s 1.6 million tons/year delayed coking unit, and Hebei Lunte's 2 million tons/year residual oil deep processing project.

According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the cumulative domestic production of petroleum coke from January to November 2025 was 28.77 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.9%; The production in November was 2.596 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.3%. Based on the regular output in December, the annual output is estimated to be about 31 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of about 4%. Shandong is the largest production area, with an output of 881,000 tons in November and a cumulative output of 8.841 million tons from January to November, accounting for over 30%; Guangdong, Liaoning, Jiangsu, and others followed closely behind. In 2026, the supply of low sulfur coke will remain tight due to raw material restrictions, the production range of medium sulfur coke will expand, the supply of negative electrode special coke will increase, and the production of high sulfur and high vanadium coke will decline. Overall, the domestic production of petroleum coke is expected to reach 32 million tons in 2026, a year-on-year increase of about 3%.

According to data from the General Administration of Customs, the import volume of petroleum coke from January to November 2025 was 13.875 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 11.68%; Based on the regular arrival volume in December, the annual import volume is estimated to be about 15 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 11.86%. The import volume from January to June was 8.1822 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 10.25%. In the second quarter, due to the impact of tariff expectations, the inventory was prepared in advance, and the import volume experienced a temporary outbreak. Downstream consumption concentration areas such as Shandong, Guangdong, and Jiangsu are the main import ports, and port inventory accumulates in stages. In November 2025, both China and the United States agreed to implement a 13% tariff on the US for one year, which will benefit the import of petroleum coke. The expected import volume of petroleum coke in 2026 is 15.5 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3%, with a significant slowdown in growth rate compared to 2005, and structural optimization as the main feature.

According to data from the General Administration of Customs, the export volume of petroleum coke from January to November 2025 was 204,400 tons, an increase of 15.74% year-on-year; Based on the regular export volume in December, the annual export volume is estimated to be about 230,000 tons, an increase of 22.28% year-on-year. The significant decline in domestic petroleum coke exports from 2020 to 2025 is mainly due to tight domestic supply, compressed export profits, and policy constraints; The export volume is expected to rebound at a low level in 2026, with a total volume of 250000 tons, and the structure will be concentrated towards high-quality coke with low to medium sulfur content. The export of high sulfur coke will continue to be restricted.

On the demand side: The apparent consumption of petroleum coke in China is expected to be 45.77 million tons in 2025. In the first half of 2025, due to the impact of tariff expectations, early stocking was carried out, and the import volume exploded in stages. The apparent consumption of petroleum coke is significantly better than in the second half of the year. Overall, the expected apparent consumption of petroleum coke in 2026 is around 47.25 million tons.

Electrolytic aluminum

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the price of electrolytic aluminum will mainly fluctuate widely in 2025. On January 1st, the market price of aluminum was 19,783.33 RMB/ton, and as of December 31st, the market price was around 22,473.33 RMB/ton, with an annual increase of 13.6%. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the production of electrolytic aluminum from January to November 2025 was 41.433 million tons, and the total production is expected to be around 45.2 million tons in 2025, an increase of 3.14% compared to 43.822 million tons in 2024. In 2025, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum will remain high and close to the capacity ceiling. The expected year-on-year growth rate of electrolytic aluminum production in 2026 is basically the same. It is expected that China's electrolytic aluminum production will reach 46 million tons by 2026.

metallic silicon

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the overall market price of silicon metal (#441) in 2025 shows a trend of first falling and then fluctuating at a medium low level. On January 1, 2025, the market price of silicon metal (#441) was referenced at 11,690 RMB/ton, and on December 31, 2025, the market price of silicon metal (#441) was referenced at 9,620 RMB/ton, with a year-on-year decline of 17.71%. The annual highest price is 11,690 RMB/ton and the lowest price is 8,620 RMB/ton, with a fluctuation of 26.26%. From 2021 to 2024, China's metal silicon production capacity has steadily increased. In 2025, the production capacity of metallic silicon will continue to be released, with a capacity of approximately 7.846 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 8.94%. In 2026, it is expected that the supply side of silicon metal will continue to expand slightly, and the focus of capacity expansion will shift towards the northwest. However, the newly added capacity is limited, and it is expected to be a project that has not been put into operation in the early stage, about 700,000 tons. The magnitude of the newly added capacity is relatively controllable, and the situation of overcapacity is difficult to fundamentally reverse in the short term.

Glass

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the glass market is expected to fluctuate and decline in 2025. On January 1st, the market price of glass was 16.40 RMB/ton, and as of December 31st, the market price was around 12.75 RMB/ton, with an annual decline of 22.26%. In 2025, the daily melting volume of domestic float glass will be about 145,000 tons, with petroleum coke as fuel accounting for about 20.77%. Based on the consumption of 0.12-0.15 tons of petroleum coke per ton of glass fuel, the demand for fuel grade petroleum coke in the glass industry for the whole year will be about 4.8-5 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1% -3%. The weakening demand is mainly due to weak real estate completion and tightening environmental policies.

Negative electrode material

In 2025, the Chinese lithium battery negative electrode material market will experience a dual explosion of scale expansion and industrial transformation. The strong demand resonance between the core power sources of market growth, namely automatic power batteries and energy storage, is particularly prominent in the energy storage field, which has become the main force for downstream demand growth in the negative electrode industry. The annual output of negative electrode materials in 2025 is about 2.95 million tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 77.6%. The dependence on imported petroleum coke for negative electrode materials is still as high as 45%. With the release of domestic needle coke production capacity, the process of import substitution will accelerate, and it is expected that the localization rate will increase to over 75% by 2030. In 2026, the industry will continue to maintain a growth trend, with a total output expected to reach 3.26 million tons, and the energy storage market will become a new growth engine.

2026 Petroleum Coke Market Trend Forecast

Supply and demand pattern: bidirectional growth of supply and demand, with a prominent shortage of low sulfur coke

Supply side: It is expected that multiple delayed coking units will be built and put into operation in China by 2026, with a total production capacity of approximately 5.7 million tons per year. These newly added devices are mainly distributed in the Northeast, Northwest, North China, and East China regions, which will bring new supply increments to the Chinese petroleum coke market. According to the latest data, the total new production capacity of delayed coking units in China will reach 950,000 tons per year from 2026 to 2030, with the majority concentrated in the East China region. In terms of imports, in November 2025, both China and the United States will implement a 13% tariff on the US for one year, and the import volume of petroleum coke may steadily increase.

The demand side growth momentum is clear, and there is still new production capacity to be invested in the aluminum carbon industry. It is expected that the demand for petroleum coke will continue to steadily increase; The orders for negative electrode material energy storage and power continue to increase, which is expected to provide strong support for the demand for petroleum coke; The demand for graphite electrodes, carbon electrodes, and metallic silicon is expected to increase slightly; The expected demand for silicon carbide and glass markets is expected to decrease; The southern fuel market is expected to have weak and stable demand for high sulfur fuels.

Price trend: structural differentiation intensifies, low sulfur coke operates at a high level

The overall price of petroleum coke is expected to show a "strong oscillation" trend in 2026, with further structural differentiation. The tightening of environmental policies will lead to a reduction in the supply of high sulfur coke, a tight supply of low sulfur coke, and an increase in prices. The stable growth of downstream demand, especially in emerging fields such as new energy vehicles and energy storage, will drive an increase in demand for petroleum coke. The sluggish crude oil prices will to some extent suppress the rise in petroleum coke prices, but the supply-demand gap and environmental costs will drive price recovery. Low sulfur coke is driven by the demand for lithium battery negative electrodes, with a price range of 3,000-5,000 RMB/ton, maintaining a high level of operation; Based on traditional industrial demand, the price range for medium sulfur coke is expected to be between 1,700-3,000 RMB/ton; Due to the ongoing fuel substitution effect, the price of high sulfur coke will continue to hover at a low level, ranging from 900 to 1,800 RMB/ton.

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