By 2025, China's acetone fundamentals will exhibit overall growth in both supply and demand. Regarding domestic supply, Shandong Fuyu commenced external sales in late February 2025, while Zhenhai Refining & Chemical produced qualified products in mid-July. However, due to persistently weak market conditions, most plants operated at a loss for extended periods. Increased shutdowns for maintenance at phenol-acetone units during the year, coupled with industry-wide production adjustments, led to a slight decline in operating rates. Consequently, domestic output growth slowed, with 2025 domestic supply reaching 3.134 million tons—an increase of only 131,000 tons compared to 2024.

Regarding imports and exports, influenced by the termination of anti-dumping duties, acetone imports in 2025 are projected to reach approximately 435,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 34.67%. Exports will see a slight decrease, with 2025 exports estimated at 23,000 tons, down 34.29% year-on-year.

Regarding acetone demand, China's apparent consumption is projected to reach approximately 3.569 million tons in 2025. The phenol-acetone-bisphenol A-PC chain will maintain stable development, with new phenol-acetone and bisphenol A facilities largely commissioned. Additionally, new downstream MMA, isopropanol, and MIBK facilities continue commissioning, driving continued growth in acetone apparent consumption. The year-on-year growth rate is projected at 9.12%.

Capacity Outlook: Entering 2025, China's acetone production capacity will maintain an upward trajectory, with three new phenol-acetone units commencing operations. Among these, Fuyu Petrochemical's 250,000-ton/year phenol-ketone unit began feedstock processing in October 2024 but remained in commissioning phase until late February 2025 when it produced qualified product. Zhenhai Refining & Chemical's 650,000-ton phenol-ketone unit produced qualified product in mid-July, while Jilin Petrochemical's 350,000-ton unit achieved qualified product output by late September. By the end of December 2025, China's total acetone production capacity reached 4.328 million tons, an increase of 465,000 tons compared to 2024, representing a capacity growth rate of 12.04%.

Production Perspective: China's acetone output and operating rates in 2025 exhibited range-bound fluctuations with limited regularity. January saw no phenol-acetone unit maintenance domestically, resulting in elevated overall operating rates and production of 273,100 tons. Unexpected shutdowns at Zhejiang Petrochemical and Ningbo Taiwan Chemical's phenol-acetone units in February caused narrow declines in both operating rates and output, with February production reaching 233,000 tons—the year's lowest level. In March, Gaoqiao Petrochemical's phenol-acetone unit was shut down, but due to its limited capacity, the operating rate only saw a slight decrease. In April, the phenol-acetone industry's operating rate was relatively low, with some units undergoing scheduled maintenance and others reducing production, resulting in an operating rate of 74.67%. From May to July, domestic phenol-ketone plants underwent both scheduled maintenance and unplanned shutdowns, gradually boosting operating rates to around 80.46%. Subsequently, acetone output surged significantly due to the sustained ramp-up of Zhenhai Refining & Chemical's new phenol-ketone facility. reaching 279,000 tons in August—the highest level of the year. However, in September, concentrated maintenance at facilities including Mitsui Chemicals, Shenghong Refining & Chemical, and Longjiang Chemical led to a decline in both output and utilization rates. The phenol-acetone operating rate in September dropped to 73.82%, the lowest level of the year. Production rebounded in early October as units resumed operations after maintenance. From November to December, phenylethanone units at Ningbo Formosa Plastics and Zhejiang Petrochemical underwent scheduled maintenance in rotation, resulting in relatively stable industry operating rates.

As an integrated internet platform providing benchmark prices, on January 23, the benchmark price of acetone, according to SunSirs, was 4625.00 RMB/ton, an increase of 13.99% compared to the beginning of the month (4057.50 RMB/ton).

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