Price trend
According to price monitoring by SunSirs, stainless steel prices rose slightly last week. As of January 23rd, the average daily price of 304/2B stainless steel sheets (1.0*1219*2438, tolerance 0.91) was 12,850 RMB/ton, a 0.39% increase from the beginning of the week and a 6.64% increase year-on-year.
According to the price difference analysis tool from SunSirs, the price trends of nickel and stainless steel WEre similar, with an overall upward trend recently.
Market analysis
Last week, total stainless steel inventory amounted to 921,500 tons, a decrease of 0.61% compared to the previous week. Both cold rolled and hot rolled steel inventories decreased.
Raw materials: Regarding nickel ore, tender prices from Philippine mines continued to rise, with the Benguet mine's 1.25% nickel ore tender price settling at $32.5. Expectations of tighter Indonesian mining quotas were further reinforced, and the Indonesian HPM benchmark price for the second half of January was officially implemented, with the benchmark price for 1.6% grade ore increasing to $29.04/wet ton, a significant increase compared to the first half of the month. High-nickel pig iron prices continued to rise, and nickel alloy prices remained strong; the circulation of ferrochrome spot resources was limited, and coupled with a slowdown in the increase of ferrochrome supply, retail prices for ferrochrome remained relatively firm.
Supply and Demand: In December, domestic stainless steel mills produced 3.2605 million tons of crude steel, a decrease of 232,600 tons compared to the previous month. The estimated crude stainless steel production for January was 3.4065 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 4.48% and a year-on-year increase of 19.05%. With improved profitability, steel mills revised their production plans upwards, resulting in an overall looser supply. In both traditional and emerging sectors, construction projects had slowed down, leading to weak purchasing demand, and downstream companies were facing significant financial pressure, making it difficult for demand to absorb the high price increases. Downstream companies were cautious in their stocking and mainly purchasing on an as-needed basis.
Market outlook
Recent news from the raw materials sector has influenced market sentiment, strengthening cost support. Social inventories were being steadily depleted, but downstream demand remained primarily driven by essential purchases, and the off-season demand boost was still insufficient. While expectations and cost support were strengthening, ample supply and weak demand were limiting upward potential. Therefore, stainless steel prices are expected to fluctuate within a generally upward trend.
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