Price trend
According to the business data analysis system of SunSirs, the polyester staple fiber market has recently experienced a slight rebound. As of January 26th, the average domestic market price of polyester staple fiber (1.4D*38mm) was 6,587 RMB/ton, an increase of 2.19% compared to January 20th.
Market analysis
Supported by favorable cost factors, the PX market was experiencing further tightening of supply due to concentrated maintenance shutdowns in the spring. The second quarter will see a peak in global PX plant maintenance, with planned maintenance capacity exceeding 7.6 million tons in China, and maintenance also taking place in Japan, South Korea, and other regions. Overall supply is expected to decrease by 5%. Domestically, several plants, including those of Sinopec and Zhejiang Petrochemical, have already undergone planned maintenance in the first quarter, and the expected supply contraction is driving positive sentiment in the PX market, with cost-driven factors continuing to strengthen.
The PTA market was experiencing volatile upward price movements. As of January 26th, the spot price of PTA in East China was 5,341 RMB/ton, a 6.63% increase compared to January 19th. In terms of supply, the low processing margins have led to an increase in PTA plant maintenance shutdowns, with the current PTA industry operating rate around 75%. It is estimated that PTA maintenance shutdowns will affect over 12 million tons of capacity in the first quarter and over 27 million tons in the second quarter, representing over 40% of total capacity. Furthermore, the PTA industry is expected to enter a capacity vacuum period in 2026, with no new capacity coming online, further tightening supply.
In terms of demand, since January, the market has shown a pattern of strong external demand but weak domestic demand. Export orders remain relatively strong, particularly for spring and summer apparel fabrics from weaving mills. However, the domestic market has entered its traditional off-season, with terminal weaving capacity utilization accelerating its decline to 48%. Factories have begun to close for holidays to digest existing raw material inventories. Due to the rapid increase in raw material prices, there has been some passive restocking. Those with smaller inventories have enough stock for 1-2 weeks, mainly covering their needs before the Lunar New Year; those with larger inventories have enough stock for 15-30 days after the holiday.
Market outlook
According to analysts at SunSirs, the short-term staple fiber market is being driven by the strong sentiment in the chemical market, leading to an overall upward trend in the polyester sector, fluctuating in line with raw material prices. Further developments will depend on changes in costs and downstream inventory stocking ahead of the holidays.
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