Price trend

Recently, the coal price at 5,500 kcal ports has been reported at 671 RMB/ton, a year-on-year decrease of 152 RMB/ton, and a significant decline compared to the same period in 2024 (823 RMB/ton), entering a downward trend.

Reason analysis: Under the weak supply-demand pattern, traders have a low willingness to ship due to cost inversion, while downstream power plant procurement demand is suppressed by seasonal declines, resulting in a lack of unilateral price drivers.

Main reasons for the decline:

Over supply: domestic capacity release+impact of imported coal, high port inventory;

Weak demand: Non electric industries (cement/chemical) have seen a decrease in procurement, while new energy substitution is accelerating;

Market sentiment: Traders are selling goods to suppress prices, while downstream consumers are watching from the sidelines with a "buy up, not buy down" attitude.

Market Trends:

Demand side: The rise in temperature has led to a decrease in residential electricity and heating demand, resulting in a month on month decline in daily power plant consumption. The inventory of terminal power plants is within a reasonable range, and procurement is mainly based on rigid replenishment, resulting in sluggish market transactions.

Supply side: Major coal transportation routes such as the Daqin Line have entered the spring centralized maintenance period, with an average daily shipment volume decreasing by about 20% and a decrease in port inflow. The strong coal prices at the pithead, coupled with rising transportation costs, have led to higher arrival costs at northern ports than the selling price, which has dampened the enthusiasm of traders.

Under the weak supply and demand situation, coal prices may continue to fluctuate within the range of 730-760 RMB/ton, and attention should be paid to the pace of supply recovery after maintenance is completed.

Imported coal market

Import cost pressure: Due to fluctuations in the RMB exchange rate (assuming exchange rate≈ 7.0) and high international shipping costs, the estimated landed cost of 3800 kcal in Indonesia is about 420-440 RMB/ton (FOB $50+freight $10/ton), which is close to the winning price of domestic power plants (458 RMB/ton), with limited profit margins. The FOB price of 5.500 kcal in Australia is $71/ton, with a landed price of approximately 600-620 RMB/ton, significantly lower than the domestic coal price of the same calorific value (730-750 RMB/ton). However, due to geopolitical policy restrictions, the actual import volume is limited.

Winning bid price of power plant: CCI3800： 458 RMB/ton (week on week -1 RMB), reflecting weak demand for low calorie coal.

CCI5500: 694 RMB/ton (week on week+2 RMB), the price difference with the port has widened to 36-56 RMB/ton, indicating that there is still structural demand for high calorie coal from power plants.

Market prediction

Short term trend (April May): The price center is expected to remain fluctuating within the range of 725-760 RMB. Key observation point: the speed of port inventory repair after the maintenance of the Daqin Line on April 20th.

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