SunSirs: China Wood Pulp Price Fluctuates, with Short-term Fluctuations

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, the price of softwood pulp continued to suppress first and then rise last week, while the price of hardwood pulp remained stable after fluctuating. On November 15th, the average market price of softwood pulp in Shandong Province was 6,254 RMB/ton, an increase of 0.22 compared to the average price on November 10th. On November 15th, the average market price of hardwood pulp in Shandong Province was 4,590 RMB/ton, which remained stable compared to the average price on November 10th.

On the supply side: Recently, there have been positive news in the market that Canadian port strikes and pulp factories are slowing down shipments, leading to expectations of an increase in market imports. However, due to disruptions in overseas supply, the price of coniferous pulp remains firm in US dollars, resulting in a widening price difference between different types of pulp. The current wood pulp prices have been fluctuating for a long time, partly due to cost support in high cost regions, and partly due to limited imports. But although there are resistance factors, these factors are also difficult to push prices to break through upwards.

In terms of demand, the peak season of Golden September and Silver October has basically failed, and the price increase of downstream paper mills in China is not smooth. The overall trend of paper prices is declining, and the profitability of paper mills is still in a sluggish state. The poor shipment has led to a decrease in raw material procurement. However, domestic port inventory is at a low level, and there is a phenomenon of reduced production and supply downstream, which has a certain boosting effect on pulp prices.

Domestic port data: The sample inventory of mainstream ports in China has shifted from accumulated inventory to depleted inventory. As of November 14, 2024, the sample inventory of pulp in mainstream ports in China was 1.739 million tons, a decrease of 0.6% from the previous period. Among them, the inventory of Qingdao Port was 1.078 million tons, an increase of 1.5% compared to the previous period; The inventory of Changshu Port was 462,000 tons, a decrease of 7.2% compared to the previous period.

In terms of futures, pulp futures showed a slight upward trend last week, but weakened again today. As of November 15th, the opening price of the main contract sp2501 for pulp futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 5930 RMB/ton, the closing price was 5,880 RMB/ton, and the highest price was 5,936 RMB/ton, with a daily decline of 0.71%. The trading volume was 301,300 lots, and the position held was 148,741 lots.

The wood pulp analyst from SunSirs believes that the current wood pulp market is intertwined with both bullish and bearish factors, and the financial attributes of pulp varieties are strong, which is greatly influenced by macro market sentiment. It is expected that the spot price of wood pulp will maintain a volatile trend in the short term.

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