SunSirs: Weak Demand and Insufficient Support, China PET Bottle Chip Market Shifted Down

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the PET bottle chip market prices fluctuated downward in November. As of November 22, its average market price was 6,150 RMB/ton, a decrease of 135 RMB/ton or 2.09% from the average price at the beginning of the month.

In terms of cost, this month, OPEC+ postponed its oil production plan, coupled with the closure of some crude oil production facilities due to tropical storms and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut policy, and other positive factors, international oil prices have shown an upward trend for several consecutive days. This trend has strengthened the cost side support of the polyester industry. However, downstream markets are resistant to high priced sources of goods, and due to sufficient stocking in the early stages, market trading volume is relatively light. Therefore, there has been a fierce game between multiple parties and the bears in the market, resulting in a slight shift in the focus of the polyester bottle chip market. Subsequently, the US dollar index saw a significant increase, while OPEC lowered its crude oil demand forecast in its monthly report, exacerbating market concerns about oversupply of oil. In this context, international oil prices have shown a fluctuating downward trend. As a result, the polyester raw material end has been dominated by negative factors, and the price of the bottle chip market has also declined accordingly. Although at the end of the month, the conflict between Russia-Ukraine conflict significantly escalated, bringing some benefits to the oil market, the polyester bottle and tablet market still remained in a low and volatile situation due to the weakening of the supply and demand relationship at the polyester raw material end and the lack of obvious support at the cost end.

Since November, the domestic supply of PTA has increased, with a total of over 10 million tons of PTA plants being restarted one after another, and the current industry operating rate is close to 90%. The new PTA production capacity of 2.7 million tons in the East China region is also about to be put into operation, and the PTA supply is still abundant, which is bearish on spot prices. As of November 27th, the average market price in East China was 4,783 RMB/ton, a decrease of 2.39% from the beginning of the month.

This month, the polyester raw material end has weakened and adjusted, and downstream demand is weak. The market atmosphere is bearish, and it is difficult to repair the processing fees of the bottle chip industry. Downstream soft drinks are traditionally in the off-season, and terminal production has decreased. The enthusiasm for market entry and procurement is low, and moderate transactions for essential needs are the main focus. The supply of bottle chips in the market is still sufficient, but downstream purchases are cautious and essential, resulting in a slight weakness in overall transactions and ongoing inventory pressure.

Overall, international crude oil prices may continue to fluctuate weakly, and cost support remains weak; Although there is an expectation of reduced supply, downstream demand is weak, transactions are insufficient, and the negative mentality of industry players still exists. It is expected that the polyester bottle chip market will fluctuate downward next month, and the PET market price may continue to fluctuate at a low level in the short term. The actual trend still depends on the trend of the raw material side and the subsequent actual supply and demand situation.

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