1. Trend analysis

According to SunSirs nickel price monitoring, on April 20, the nickel price rose sharply to 101,216.67 yuan / ton, which was 3.14% higher than the previous day and 0.40% year-on-year. Shanghai nickel mainly opened at 98,970 yuan, and then the price rose sharply to close at 102,300 yuan, an increase of 3.29%. LME nickel March closed at $ 12,385, an increase of 2.61%.

2. Market analysis

Supply is blocked: The current production and transportation of nickel mines in the Philippines are suspended until April 30. The number of shipments last week was only 8, far lower than the 23 ships in the same period last year. If the supply resumes at the end of April, the estimated metal loss is about 30,000 metal tons, if it recovers at the end of May, the amount of metal damage will reach 70,000 metal tons; and on the Indonesian side, all six lines put into production this year lag behind this month's release increment. The maintenance of two Jinchuan lines has affected the supply of nickel-iron in Indonesia , And the epidemic also affected production efficiency.

In terms of inventory: LME stocks increased by 1,242 tons to 330,000 tons, while domestic stock exchanges decreased by 179 tons to 28,000 tons, bonded area stocks decreased by 700 tons to 17,900 tons. Three places inventory increased slightly by 363 tons to 276,000 tons, the same period increased by 61,000 tons, an increase of 64,000 tons from the beginning of the year.

Downstream rise: The downstream stainless steel futures price rose by nearly 1,000 yuan in two weeks, which led to a sharp increase in spot prices and also supported nickel prices.

3. Outlook

Nickel supply is blocked, and downstream stainless steel prices are rising, which supports nickel price. It is expected that nickel price fluctuations will be strong in the short term.

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