Price trend
This week (7.18-7.25) the BR market first fell and then rose, but the fundamentals were still weak. According to the monitoring of SunSirs, as of July 25, the domestic price of BR was 13,830 RMB/ton, down 0.79% from 13,940 RMB/ton last Monday, and the weekly low was 13,790 RMB/ton.
Analysis review
The downstream demand was sluggish, the maintenance equipment in the early stage was gradually restarted, the supply of BR was expected to increase, and the market was weak and consolidated; On the one hand, the international crude oil price rebounded last weekend. On the other hand, butadiene fluctuated in a narrow range, with the support of cost. CNPC Northeast, North China, South China and other sales companies raised the ex-factory price of BR by 200 RMB/ton, which led to a rebound in the market.
Recently, Wanda and Lande have restarted a total of 100,000 tons/year BR plant. In addition, Qixiang's new 40,000-ton/year BR plant is planned to be put into operation recently, and the supply side has increased slightly, which has formed a certain pressure on the BR market.
Since July, the butadiene market has fluctuated within a narrow range, and the cost of BR has been temporarily stable in the short term. According to the monitoring of SunSirs, as of July 25, the price of butadiene was 10,260 RMB/ton, down 0.32% from the 10,292 RMB/ton last Monday.
The natural rubber market rebounded slightly, but the overall situation was still at a low level, with little support for BR. According to the monitoring of SunSirs, as of July 25, the price of natural rubber was 12,170 RMB/ton, an increase of 0.89% from 12,063 RMB/ton last Monday.
Downstream tires started at a low level, with half-steel tires at around 6.5% and all-steel tires at around 5.5%. The demand for rubber was weak, and market transactions were slightly stalemate.
Market outlook
Analysts of SunSirs believe that the international crude oil fluctuates in the range, the price of natural rubber is hovering at a low level, the pressure on the supply side is increasing, and the market transaction is deadlocked, which makes the rebound of the BR market unsustainable. It is expected that the price of BR will continue to decline in the later period.
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