According to the monitoring data of SunSirs, the price of thermal coal was firm last week. On October 13, the energy index was 1,173 points, up 1 point from the previous day, down 24.86% from the highest point in the cycle 1561 (2021-10-21), and up 129.55% from the lowest point 511 on March 1, 2016. (Note: the cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to the present)

In terms of production area, the strong operation of thermal coal is affected by the epidemic situation and safety production reduction. Currently, coal mines are mainly responsible for long-term coal supply, and the market supply is still tight. The supply decreased, and the market trading atmosphere was fair. Some coal mines in Yulin have stopped production and prices have risen slightly.

In terms of downstream ports, traders' quotations are relatively firm, but they are mainly wait-and-see. In addition, during the overhaul of Datong Qinhuangdao Railway, the traders maintained a high price mentality. The enthusiasm of the downstream to pick up goods is average, but the market is bullish because the heating season is coming.

Macro: On October 24, the National Bureau of Statistics released data showing that in September, the production of raw coal was 386.72 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 12.3%, 4.2 percentage points faster than that of last month, and the average daily output was 12.89 million tons. From January to September, 3,315.65 million tons of raw coal were produced, up 11.2% year on year.

SunSirs analysts believe that: the production of thermal coal in the origin area is affected by the safety inspection and epidemic situation, the coal output has declined, and the coal supply is tight. In terms of downstream ports, most of them are strong. And the winter storage is coming, and the power plant still has demand for coal. However, the market is still in a stalemate due to more wait-and-see. However, considering the impact of superimposed policies, it is expected that thermal coal prices will mainly fluctuate in China, depending on the downstream market demand.

If you have any questions, please feel free to contact SunSirs with support@sunsirs.com.