According to the monitoring data of SunSirs, the price of thermal coal rose as a whole this month. On October 30, the energy index was 1180, unchanged from the previous day, 24.41% lower than the cycle's highest point of 1,561 (2021-10-21), and 130.92% higher than the lowest point of 511 on March 1, 2016. (Note: the cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to the present)
The overall price of thermal coal in this month is relatively strong. In terms of origin, affected by the epidemic situation and safety reduction, coal mines are now mainly used to ensure long-term coal supply, and the market supply is still tight. The supply is reduced, the market trading atmosphere is fair, and the coal price is strongly supported. In terms of downstream ports, the price is mostly strong. During the overhaul of Daqin Line, the amount of coal entering each port has decreased. The traders' quotation is relatively firm and their willingness to ship is relatively strong. However, most downstream power plants mainly purchase on demand, with a wait-and-see attitude.
The National Bureau of Statistics announced on October 27, that from January to September 2022, industrial enterprises above designated size will achieve an operating revenue of 100.17 trillion RMB, an increase of 8.2% year on year. The business income of mining owners was 5025.65 billion RMB, up 27.6% year on year, with a narrow growth rate. Among them, the main business income of coal mining and washing industry was 2,988.96 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 38.0%, and the growth rate was 7.1 percentage points lower than that of last month; The oil and gas exploitation industry was 942.73 billion RMB, up 44.8% year on year; The ferrous metal mining and beneficiation industry was 374.77 billion RMB, down 19.2% year on year; The nonferrous metal mining and dressing industry was 253.15 billion RMB, up 16.4% year on year; The non-metallic mining and dressing industry was 311.17 billion RMB, up 4.3% year on year; Other mining industries were 1.46 billion RMB, up 57.0% year on year.
SunSirs analysts believe that the overall price of thermal coal in October was relatively strong. At present, the coal mine is still mainly guaranteed for supply and long-term cooperation with coal. There are few marketable resources in the market, and the traders' quotation is relatively firm. The superimposed winter is coming, and the power plant still has a demand for power coal. However, the power plant still purchases on demand at this stage, with a strong wait-and-see mentality. Considering the policy aspect, it is comprehensively expected that China thermal coal will be mainly used to collate the operating market in the later period, depending on the downstream market demand.
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