According to the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, the price of gasoline and diesel in Shandong local refineries fell slightly this week. As of the weekend, the domestic price of 92# gasoline was 8006.17 RMB/ton, a price decline of 1.03%; the domestic price of 0# diesel was 6726 RMB/ton, and the price trend fell by 2.19%.

Cost side: crude oil prices fell and cost support was weak

The trend of international oil prices fell sharply. As of the 10th, the settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was US$60.07/barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US$63.33/barrel. On the one hand, the US tariff trade war and tariff trade barriers have brought huge impacts on the global economy, and future uncertainties have increased. The market believes that the risk of the United States falling into an economic recession has increased, and this will have a huge negative impact on global economic growth. On the other hand, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) announced future production increases, which also had a negative impact on crude oil. International oil prices fell sharply due to this, and the cost side fell sharply. The domestic gasoline and diesel prices were sluggish.

Supply side: Shandong local refineries start up and supply side is loose

This week, the main refinery start-up rate increased, resource supply increased, Shandong local refineries average start-up increased to about 54%, the supply of imported raw materials has basically normalized, and the cost of raw materials has decreased. Some suspended refineries have plans to resume work. Local refineries start up and increase in supply have a certain negative impact on the market. Local refineries gasoline and diesel prices have fallen.

Demand side: Demand is general and the market trend is declining

In terms of gasoline, recent activities such as spring outings by residents have a certain boost to gasoline terminal consumption, but there is no holiday support. Gasoline terminal consumption is normal. Gasoline terminal consumption returns to residents' daily short-distance travel. Intermediaries replenish inventory on demand. In addition, the continuous penetration of new energy vehicles has brought a certain impact on gasoline demand. Overall, gasoline prices have fallen slightly. In terms of diesel, as the temperature rises, outdoor industrial and mining, infrastructure and other units start up more, and the rigid demand support of the diesel market is relatively stable. However, the slowdown in manufacturing activities may suppress the seasonal recovery of diesel consumption. In addition, the increase in supply suppresses the diesel market, and the diesel market trend has declined slightly.

Market Forecast: Based on the follow-up impact of the current US tariff policy, crude oil may enter a new cycle in the long term. The supply and demand balance may be broken, and in the process of rebalancing, crude oil prices will fluctuate violently in the short term. Domestically, the refinery operating rate has increased in the short term, the supply of refined oil has increased, and the demand for gasoline is general. The gasoline market price is mainly volatile; diesel is affected by the negative impact of crude oil costs on the one hand, and the demand recovery may slow down on the other hand, and diesel prices will be mainly sluggish in the later period.

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