In 2019, the nonferrous industry as a whole showed a trend of shock. In the first half of the year, the decline since September 2017 continued. In the second half of the year, after reaching a two-year low on July 10, it bottomed out and rebounded. Two months later, it retreated again into a narrow shock period. The prices of gold, silver, nickel and heavy rare earth rose, while the prices of light rare earth, lead, cobalt, antimony and other small metals fell. Among them, the three commodity non-ferrous industries of heavy rare earth rose the most, while nickel (26.45%) was the product with the highest growth among the basic metals, while copper went out of the independent market.
According to the price monitoring of SunSirs, there are 9 kinds of commodities in the list of commodity prices rising and falling in 2019, including 8 kinds of commodities with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 36.4% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three commodities are dysprosium oxide (44.63%), dysprosium ferroalloy (40.98%) and dysprosium metal (28.40%). There are 13 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, and 10 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 45.5% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three products falling are cobalt (- 23.12%), antimony (- 22.52%) and lead (- 18.31%). The average annual increase and decrease is 1.84%.
Key products: precious metal, basic metal, small metal and rare earth
Precious metals (increasing rapidly): precious metals rose the most in all sectors in 2019. Among them, gold rose by 20.57% and silver by 20.97%. The price of domestic precious metals took off in May and fluctuated after September. During the year, it was greatly influenced by international policies, mainly reflected in the demand for gold ETFs and the gold reserves of central banks in the third quarter. The international gold price led the domestic price. It is reported that the gold output in the first three quarters of this year was 2583.4 tons, and the total gold recovery in the first three quarters was 963.1 tons, A year-on-year increase of more than 8% and stable domestic supply of precious metals. On the demand side, affected by the rising price, the demand for domestic ornaments decreased slightly. In the later stage, it is mainly concerned about the change of international trade environment and whether monetary policies of central banks are loose. It is expected that the demand for risk aversion will still exist in 2020, and precious metals have little room for downside.
Basic metals (up and down by half): in 2019, copper, aluminum and nickel rose, lead zinc and tin fell, up and down by half. Among them, nickel rose the most, lead fell the most, and copper fluctuated slightly throughout the year.
Small metals (polarising): the market of small metals in 2019 is not optimistic, except for titanium concentrate, magnesium, cobalt and antimony are all annihilated.
Big ups and downs: nickel, copper, lead and cobalt
Nickel (+ 27.06%): the domestic nickel market rose and fell slightly in the first half of 2019, and rose and fell sharply in the second half. The increase of nickel was concentrated in July and August. At the beginning of July, Indonesia's earthquake and Indonesia's restart of export ban, as well as the impact of the restart of 17 mine sound reviews in the Philippines, coupled with the impact of the shutdown of a nickel mine factory under vale in the early part of the previous period, caused nickel supply concerns, resulting in a continuous increase of 40% in nickel price. The news of Indonesia's ban on mining in early September really beat up the Philippine nickel resource kujie, and nickel price rose again The price of nickel soared nearly 60% to 140,000RMB in two months. After the nickel price reached the highest price on September 2, Indonesia announced a new round of tax relief, as well as the drag of the downstream stainless steel price and the demand for new energy nickel, with the dust from the previous ban on mining in Indonesia falling, which was good for consumption. The nickel price recovered nearly 30% in the fourth quarter. In 2020, nickel is in short supply. Because stainless steel manufacturers are hoarding a lot of goods, the real shortage may be in the second half of the year. It is expected that the nickel price will be under pressure in the first half of 2020, and the price will be stronger in the second half of the year.
Copper (+ 1.81%): in 2019, the domestic copper market rose first, then fell, then fluctuated and rose. Looking at the trend of copper throughout the year, copper has been in a small fluctuation, tepid and tepid trend. The highest price of the whole year is 50,213RMB/ton on March 21, and the lowest price is 45,888.33RMB/ton on July 10, with an earthquake amplitude of 9.4%, less than 10%. The overall price fluctuation is relatively small. The overall net import and output of copper in 2019 are higher than that in 2018, but the apparent consumption is decreased, so the price of copper is difficult to improve. In terms of copper fundamentals, there are frequent interferences from copper mines, and the operating rate in the lower reaches is acceptable. However, affected by the economic depression, the annual earthquake amplitude of copper price is not more than 10%. In 2020, the global economy is still in a downward cycle, still facing weak economic growth, and copper mine interference has never stopped. It is expected that copper prices will continue the trend of 2019 next year, rising in the spring, falling in the depression period, and the rest of the time will be dominated by narrow range shocks.
Lead (- 18.31%): under the general downward pattern of the global economy, the overall trend of lead price in 2019 is weak and in an oscillating downward channel, with a decline of 18.31% for the whole year. On the one hand, since the second half of the year, the supply of domestic lead ore has increased, the processing fee has increased, the start-up of lead ingot smelting has increased, and the amount of imported lead ore in China has rebounded substantially. On the other hand, the consumption is low, and the demand for lead continues to decline. Environmental policies mainly affect the demand for lead. In 2019, the peak season of electric vehicle battery consumption is not prosperous, and the consumption off-season continues since the fourth quarter, and the electric vehicle output still maintains a negative growth trend. Battery market orders began to weaken, many enterprises began to tighten production. Automobile consumption has also declined significantly, and automobile production and sales have continued to shrink for more than one year. In general, due to the increase of processing costs and profits, the supply of primary lead and recycled lead is sufficient. However, the downstream demand for lead, such as electric vehicles and automobiles, is not strong. The national policy guides the lithium elevator secondary battery to gradually replace the lead battery. At present, there is no new growth point of lead consumption. The overall supply exceeds the demand, and the focus of lead price moves down step by step.
Cobalt (- 23.12%): the first two years were extremely hot. In 2019, due to the sharp decline of new energy vehicle subsidies, cobalt experienced a painful ‘draining’ market, falling 23.12% throughout the year, and the price gradually returned to rationality. According to the analysis of the business agency, the shutdown of Glencore cobalt mine has given the cobalt market a boost. In 2020, it is expected to be a year of stable development of cobalt, but it is difficult to reproduce the soaring market in 2017. It is expected that it will be a year of stable development of cobalt Up slightly and steadily.
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