Price Trend
According to the price monitoring of SunSirs, the domestic methanol market continued to decline. On March 23, the average price of the domestic methanol market was 1,702 RMB/ ton. The price was 15.82% lower than that of the same period last month and 27.86% lower than that of the same period last year.
Market Analysis
Products: affected by financial risks, domestic methanol spot continued to decline, with a sharp decline in the northwest of the main production area, and the price in Inner Mongolia and Northern Shaanxi dropped to 1,400-1,550 RMB/ ton; the consumption market fell synchronously. The methanol social inventory of ports in East and South China continued to increase, with a total inventory of 1,031,500 tons. Among them, the inventory in East China increased, while the inventory in South China was mainly de stocking last week.
Industry chain: formaldehyde: the domestic formaldehyde market is running low as a whole. The overall market started to improve, the supply increased significantly, the upstream methanol market continued to decline, the production cost of formaldehyde enterprises decreased significantly, and the theoretical profit was considerable, but the demand of the downstream market was limited, resulting in the difficulty of formaldehyde enterprises' shipment, and the overall transaction was light.
Acetic acid: the domestic acetic acid market ended a one month continuous decline trend, with an overall increase of 30-50 RMB/ ton. The price offered by the supplier is mainly stable, and the market is full of wait-and-see atmosphere.
DME: the domestic market price of DME fluctuated downward, and the trading atmosphere was weak. After the breakdown of OPEC production reduction negotiations, there has been no good news on the market, but bad news began to increase. It has a great impact on the downstream LPG and DME. At present, the price of the mainstream enterprises in the main producing area of DME in Henan Province falls below 2,600 RMB/ ton. The major enterprises intend to support the market, but the expected effect is limited, and the price remains low after a short-term rise.
Market Forecast
SunSirs’ view: on the positive side, the domestic methanol price continues to decline, some of which has fallen near the cost line, and some of the factories have lost money; most of the factories in the main production area have little inventory pressure, and the purchase of purchased olefins is relatively considerable. On the negative side, overseas public security incidents triggered market concerns. The trend of international crude oil, finance and stock market was weak, and market participants were worried about it. The port demand was limited, and the arrival of inventory was stable, but the unloading speed was slow due to the tight storage capacity. After Iran's gas limit was eased, methanol production increased, and it is expected to arrive in China in late March. The world financial environment is in crisis, which leads to the prominent pressure of domestic economic environment, and the mentality of methanol participants is panicked. Although the price has fallen to the historical low, there is little intention to copy the bottom and speculate. At present, the financial environment and the international oil price have become the main logic affecting the bulk commodities, and the product fundamentals have little impact. Methanol analysts of the business club predict that the short-term domestic methanol market will continue to decline.
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