According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the domestic methanol market has seen a narrow upward trend. From September 1st to 30th (as of 3:00 pm), the average price of East China ports in the domestic methanol market first fell from 2,480 RMB/ton and then rose to 2,577 RMB/ton, with a price increase of 3.93% during the period and a maximum amplitude of 10.27%. The price has increased by 4.00% year-on-year.
In the first half of the month, the domestic methanol market mainly fell, with a weak macro outlook. Domestic methanol supply recovered, import volume remained high, and port methanol inventories accumulated. In addition, some downstream industries are still in the recovery stage, and demand has not yet recovered to a high level. The domestic methanol market is mainly experiencing a downturn.
In mid month, there was an increase in domestic methanol production and supply, as well as a month on month increase in foreign ship unloading, resulting in an overall increase in supply; The demand is positive, especially with a significant increase in the port's pick-up volume this week. In addition, the impact of some vessel failures and cargo quality issues on unloading speed has led to the accumulation of port inventory.
At the end of the month, domestic methanol production continued to rise, and some methanol production enterprises had pre holiday inventory demand. However, downstream and trading companies had a moderate restocking sentiment, with a wait-and-see attitude. Production enterprises mainly lowered their quotations and shipped goods, and the domestic methanol market atmosphere was average.
Approaching the end of the month, with the support of macroeconomic improvement, the domestic methanol market has stopped falling. At the same time, the arrival volume of foreign ships is low, port inventory is depleted, and port methanol prices are also relatively strong.
As of the close on September 30th, the closing price of methanol futures on Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has risen. The main contract for methanol futures, 2501, opened at 2,460 RMB/ton, with a highest price of 2,541 RMB/ton and a lowest price of 2,439 RMB/ton. It closed at 2,525 RMB/ton in the closing session, up 91 RMB/ton from the previous trading day's settlement, an increase of 3.74%. The trading volume was 779,999 lots, and the position was 581,373 lots, with a daily increase of -69,034.
In terms of cost, imported coal has a price advantage compared to domestic coal, and the demand for imported coal from domestic terminals remains high. It is expected that the import volume will continue to remain high in the later stage; In terms of non electricity, the overall demand recovery in the cement industry has fallen short of expectations, with an increase in locally suspended projects and a lack of tight connection between new and old projects. Downstream demand is lower than in previous years and the decline has expanded compared to the previous period. The chemical industry still maintains normal operations after a small amount of pre holiday storage and transportation, making it difficult to support the market. Overall, before the National Day holiday, coal prices will remain stable with a moderate to strong trend. The cost of methanol is influenced by favorable factors.
On the demand side, downstream formaldehyde: mainstream factories in Shandong are operating with reduced load, resulting in a decrease in formaldehyde demand; Downstream MTBE: Dongying Shenchi and Shandong Chengtai plants shut down, resulting in reduced MTBE demand; Downstream acetic acid: Tianjian is expected to recover, and if the equipment is extended or normal operation is restored, the demand for acetic acid will increase; Downstream chloride: There are factories in East China with expectations of inventory recovery, leading to an increase in chloride demand; Downstream dimethyl ether: There is currently no plan to start or stop dimethyl ether, and there is not much change in demand. The impact of methanol demand is mixed.
Supply side, maintenance of Shandong Rongxin equipment; Inner Mongolia Guotai equipment has been restored. The recovery amount exceeds the loss amount, and the capacity utilization rate increases. Negative factors affecting the methanol supply side.
In terms of external markets, as of the close of September 27th, the CFR Southeast Asian methanol market closed at $345.00- $346.00 per ton. The closing price of the US Gulf methanol market was 104.00-105.00 cents/gallon, down 1 cent/gallon; The closing price of FOB Rotterdam methanol market is 334.50-335.50 euros/ton, down 1 euro/ton.
In the future forecast, the overall supply of goods is abundant, and the growth rate on the demand side is relatively limited. The methanol analyst from SunSirs predicts that the domestic methanol market situation may mainly consolidate.
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