1. Trend analysis

According to SunSirs nickel price monitoring, on May 13, spot nickel price was 100,650 yuan / ton, down 2.15% from the previous trading day, down 11.5% from the beginning of the year and up 2.91% year-on-year. Shanghai Nickel's main contract opened at 101,020 yuan, and then the price first suppressed and then rose to close at 100,900 yuan, an increase of 0.03%. LME nickel closed at $ 12,285 at the time of writing, unchanged from the previous day's closing price.

2. Market analysis

Recently, nickel prices fluctuated widely. Russia ’s Norilsk Nickel Company expects that the nickel market will have an oversupply of 130,000 tons in 2020. The global nickel market will be expected to be oversupplied during the year, putting nickel prices under pressure. The London Metal Exchange (LME) 13-day London nickel inventory was reported at 233,310 metric tons, which was flat compared to the previous trading day. China's nickel output increased, and refined nickel output in April increased by 5.7% month-on-month and 9% year-on-year, to 14.72 million tons. In addition, on May 12, the Customs Tariff Commission of the State Council announced the second exclusion list for the second batch of goods subject to tariffs imposed on the United States. The list mainly includes: rare earth metal ores, silver ores and concentrates, gold ores, nickel alloy plates / belt / foil, nickel alloy wire, nickel alloy tube, aluminum alloy tube with an outer diameter not exceeding 10 cm, titanium tube, nickel-cadmium battery, etc.

3. Outlook

Increased production and the oversupply of the nickel market are expected to put pressure on nickel prices, but downstream stainless steel consumption has improved and inventories have fallen, supporting nickel prices. It is expected that nickel prices will continue to oscillate in the short term.

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