Price trend
According to the price monitoring data of SunSirs, as of June 8, the reference average price of domestic n-propanol was 8,333 yuan/ton. Compared with the price on June 1, the average price was reduced by 200 yuan/ton, a 2.34% drop; Compared with the price on May 1, the average price was lowered by 1,000 RMB/ton, a decrease of 10.71%.
Analysis review
In May, the domestic market price of n-propanol declined significantly in Shandong. Entering June, the overall market has not improved much, and downstream demand is general. In addition, the raw material ethylene external market fluctuated downward in June and gave insufficient support to n-propanol, the n-propanol market was generally weak. On June 8, the market price of n-propanol in Shandong was lowered, which was lowered by 200-300 yuan/ton compared with the previous working day. As of the 8th, the ex-factory price of n-propanol in Shandong dropped to 7,900-8,300 yuan/ton (bulk water), and the market's high-end offer prices dropped by a large margin. Compared with the prices at the end of May, the market's high-end offer prices decreased, and the largest reduction was around 500 yuan/ton. The market price of n-propanol in Nanjing was relatively stable. Among them, Nanjing Rongxin Chemical Co., Ltd.'s n-propanol plant was operating normally, and the ex-factory price of n-propanol referred to 8,500 yuan/ton (bulk water).
In terms of upstream propylene, on June 7, the price of propylene in Shandong temporarily stabilized. According to the monitoring data of SunSirs, after a sharp increase of 150-250 yuan/ton on the 3rd, the market was adjusted to run on June 8. Some companies slightly reduced 50 yuan/ton, and the market transaction rose to around 8,050-8,150 yuan/ton, and the mainstream price was around 8,050 yuan/ton. U.S. propylene prices rose on June 4, which was bullish for the propylene market. There was not much inventory in the propylene market, and the maintenance of some devices had not yet been completed, and there was no quotation. In recent days, international crude oil market events have continued, prices have fluctuated up and down, and crude oil prices have risen, which has a positive impact on the propylene market. The overall downstream operating rate is now average, the butanol plant has recovered, and the market continues to improve, which has a slight boost to propylene.
In terms of upstream ethylene, the recent external ethylene market has shown a downward trend as a whole. As of the 4th, the European ethylene market quotations, FD Northwest Europe quoted 1,303-1,316 US dollars/ton, down 23 US dollars/ton, CIF Northwest Europe quoted 1,323-1,334 US dollars/ton, down 18 US dollars/ton. The ethylene market in the United States, FD U.S. Gulf was quoted at 677-689 US dollars/ton. Recently, the US ethylene market has fallen and the demand is not good. The ethylene market in Asia, CFR Northeast Asia quoted at 1,017-1,025 US dollars/ton, down 5 US dollars/ton, and CFR Southeast Asia quoted at 962-970 US dollars/ton, down 5 US dollars/ton.
N-Propanol is likely to remain stable in the short term
At present, the domestic n-propanol market is generally weak. After the price declines, the on-market spread has narrowed and the price difference has become more reasonable. Therefore, the SunSirs’ analyst believes that in June, the domestic n-propanol market can stabilize and run smoothly. It is not ruled out that individual dealers will slightly adjust the spot price of n-propanol according to their own circumstances. Specifically, more attention should be paid to the cost of raw materials and the supply of goods in the later period.
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