In August, the trend of domestic gasoline and diesel increased significantly. As of the end of the month, the price of 92# gasoline in China was 9,191.6 RMB/ ton, up 6.99% in August; The price of 0# diesel in China was 8,632.6 RMB/ ton, and the price in the market fell by 9.45%. On one hand, the price of crude oil was driven, and on the other hand, the price of gasoline and diesel increased due to the influence of supply and demand.
In August, the prices of gasoline and diesel in Shandong's local refining industry rose sharply. Affected by extreme weather, power and production restrictions in the south, the local refining industry started to decline. In August, the supply of domestic refined oil decreased, and the operation in Shandong declined. The operation rate of domestic main refineries correspondingly decreased, and the supply was relatively tight. Although the epidemic situation in some areas was repeated, the use of vehicle air conditioners increased due to the high-level weather in the south, The demand for gasoline has been guaranteed. In addition, the supply has decreased, and the price trend of gasoline has increased. In terms of diesel fuel, the fishing moratorium in coastal areas ended in August, and the temperature in northern areas gradually dropped. The construction of outdoor projects and infrastructure projects increased, which boosted the demand for diesel fuel. In addition, due to the impact of power limitation in some areas, diesel power generation increased. In the first ten days of August, affected by the national strategic storage and export orders, the price of diesel fuel on the site increased significantly. The operating rates of local refineries and main refineries have declined, and the supply of resources is tight. With the approach of the "golden ninth" peak season, the demand for downstream goods has also increased, which has affected the price trend of gasoline and diesel in many aspects.
In terms of crude oil, the international crude oil price in August declined by 5.64%. As of the end of the month, the settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was US $93.06 /barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $99.01 /barrel. The decline of crude oil price is mainly due to the large decline in the middle and early August. On the one hand, the pessimistic view of the recent economic recession dominates the market, and the economic data is generally weak, which once again causes the market to worry about the global economic recession. In addition, the market is waiting for the negotiation results of the resumption of the Iran nuclear agreement, and the supply tension is expected to ease, which puts pressure on the international oil price. Previously, the market focus was mainly on the results of the OPEC+ ministerial meeting. Finally, the Joint Ministerial Supervision Committee (JMMC) decided to increase production by 100,000 barrels/ day in September. This increase in production is significantly smaller than the previous 648,000 barrels, which is the smallest increase in the history of the institution. Although the increase in production this time is small, equivalent to about 0.1% of the global oil demand, OPEC+ actually reserves more room for increase in production. Finally, according to the estimation of the International Energy Agency (IEA), within six months after the resumption of the Iran nuclear agreement, Iran is expected to increase the additional capacity of about 1.3 million barrels/ day. This is also a reversal of the market's view on supply tightening, and the trend of international oil prices has declined. The international oil price rebounded in late August. On the one hand, the US inventory data supported it. In addition, on Thursday, the economic data released by the U.S. Department of labor showed strong performance, and the demand for refined oil was still strong, diluting the worries about the slowdown of fuel demand caused by the risk of economic recession. On the whole, the crude oil price in August declined, but the domestic wholesale price of refined oil deviated from the trend of crude oil, and the contradiction between supply and demand led to a sharp rise in the wholesale price of refined oil.
In terms of product oil supply and demand: Recently, the operating rate of Shandong refinery has declined, and the supply side has decreased, but the demand has risen sharply. In the short term, the operation of local refineries continues to decline, and the demand for gasoline and diesel in the downstream is good. In addition, affected by the peak season, the wholesale price of domestic refined oil rises. Recently, the average operating load of atmospheric and vacuum distillation unit of Shandong main refinery is about 60.5%, the demand on the site is improving, and the price trend on the site is rising.
SunSirs oil product analyst believes that the oil price environment is complex. In the short term, the oil price may be affected by not only the fundamentals, but also sudden factors. The hurricane climate in North America is approaching. According to the judgment of previous years, it may damage the refinery facilities along the Gulf of Mexico. At that time, it may help the oil price rebound. In the medium term, it may be affected by the soaring natural gas prices in Europe, which will drive the oil price higher. In the long term, Economic recession risk and epidemic factors are still the biggest constraints on oil prices, and the risk of far-end oil prices is high. At home, the operating rate of outdoor infrastructure, factories and mines has increased. In addition, the northern region will soon enter the autumn harvest. The diesel demand is good, and the fluctuation space of gasoline demand is limited. Therefore, it is expected that there is still room for China domestic gasoline and diesel to rise in the short term.
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