SunSirs: Supply Was Sufficient, Propane Market Went Down Widely

Price trend

In mid-September, the domestic propane market was mostly down, and the Shandong propane market fell significantly. According to the data monitoring of SunSirs, the average price of propane in Shandong on September 15 was 5,915.75 RMB/ton, and the average price on September 22 was 5,668.25 RMB/ton, with a weekly decline of 4.18% and a decrease of 0.74% compared with the same period last year.

Analysis review

This week, the domestic propane market was mainly down, and the Shandong propane market fell significantly, with a range of 100-250 RMB/ton. International crude oil fell significantly during the week, and the cost aspect was bearish on the market mentality. In terms of market supply, domestic refineries had sufficient supply, which brought a certain negative impact. In terms of market demand, the increase in terminal demand was limited, and the downstream maintained on-demand replenishment, with a cautious attitude and the market trading atmosphere was general. As the 11th National Day holiday is approaching, manufacturers have a certain demand for arranging warehouses before the holiday, and most of the prices are down.

Saudi Aramco's September 2022 CP announcement showed declines in both propane and butane. Propane was 650 US dollars/ton, down 20 US dollars/ton from the previous month; butane was 630 US dollars/ton, down 30 US dollars/ton from the previous month.

Market outlook

On the whole, the international crude oil price is falling, and the support brought by the cost side is insufficient. At present, the increase in terminal demand is not obvious, the enthusiasm for entering the market in the downstream is limited, and the market trading atmosphere is general. The market supply is relatively sufficient. With the arrival of the November holiday, the upstream is mainly destocking, and the price is lowered to stimulate the downstream entry. It is expected that the propane market may still weaken in the short term.

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